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   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1153 PM CST Mon Dec 01 2025   
      
   Valid 021200Z - 031200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS   
   OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Isolated severe storms are possible mainly across the Florida   
   Panhandle this morning. The stronger storms will be capable of   
   producing locally damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado.   
      
   ...Synopsis...   
   A broad midlevel trough will advance eastward from the Ohio Valley   
   into the western Atlantic Ocean through the period. In the   
   low-levels, a frontal-wave low -- initially near the western FL   
   Panhandle -- will move eastward across northern FL while being   
   absorbed into a broad surface trough extending from the Carolinas   
   southwestward into northern FL during the late morning hours.   
   Thereafter, a coastal low will develop northward along the Eastern   
   Seaboard, while a related southward-extending cold front approaches   
   the western FL Peninsula during the afternoon/evening time frame.   
      
   ...FL Panhandle...   
   Thunderstorms will be ongoing across the FL Panhandle at the start   
   of the period -- within a zone of surface convergence and low-level   
   warm advection preceding the frontal-wave low. Despite poor   
   deep-layer lapse rates, upper 60s dewpoints will contribute to   
   surface-based inflow for this activity as it spreads eastward across   
   northern FL through the morning hours. Around 40-50 kt of effective   
   shear and clockwise-curved low-level hodographs will conditionally   
   support a couple transient supercell structures and small line   
   segments. Locally damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado will be   
   possible with the stronger storms that develop. The severe risk will   
   diminish from west to east as surface winds veer and the strongest   
   low-level mass response accompanying the midlevel trough shifts   
   northeastward into the afternoon hours.   
      
   Farther south, a strong storm or two may approach portions of the   
   western FL Peninsula ahead of the cold front during the late   
   morning/early afternoon hours -- aided by around 40 kt of effective   
   shear and weak surface-based buoyancy. However, this area will be   
   well removed from the deep-layer forcing for ascent, suggesting that   
   storms should be weakening as they approach coastal areas amid the   
   weak buoyancy.   
      
   ...Outer Banks..   
   As the coastal low tracks northward along the Eastern Seaboard, the   
   surface-based warm sector should generally remain offshore -- where   
   ample PBL moisture and strong low/deep-layer shear will favor   
   supercells. Depending on the track of the surface low, a couple   
   strong storms may track northward close to the Outer Banks during   
   the morning, though confidence in storms impacting coastal areas is   
   too low to add severe-thunderstorm probabilities at this time.   
      
   ..Weinman.. 12/02/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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