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   ACUS11 KWNS 020311   
   SWOMCD   
   SPC MCD 020310=20   
   OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-020915-   
      
   Mesoscale Discussion 2243   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0910 PM CST Mon Dec 01 2025   
      
   Areas affected...western/northern Kentucky and adjacent portions of   
   the Ohio Valley   
      
   Concerning...Heavy snow=20   
      
   Valid 020310Z - 020915Z   
      
   SUMMARY...A narrow developing corridor of heavy snow rates around or   
   in excess of 1 inch per hour appears possible, spreading across   
   western through northern Kentucky between Midnight-4 AM EST (11 PM-3   
   AM CST).   
      
   DISCUSSION...Multiple speed maxima are embedded within a broad belt   
   of strong west-southwesterly mid/upper flow now overspreading the   
   southern Great Plains through Atlantic Seaboard.  Around 500 mb, the   
   strongest of these is nosing east-northeast of the Ozark Plateau   
   through the lower Ohio Valley, accompanied by a focused area of   
   increasingly difluent and divergent upper flow which is forecast to   
   overspread much of Kentucky and adjacent portions of the Ohio Valley   
   late this evening into the overnight hours.=20=20   
      
   It appears that large-scale forcing for ascent will be aided by   
   lower/mid-tropospheric frontogenesis, which Rapid Refresh forecast   
   soundings indicate will contribute to a period of strong lift   
   maximizing in mid-levels, within a corridor near the Ohio River.=20   
   This is forecast to include a layer near/below 500 mb, where   
   saturating profiles with temperatures around -15 C will be most   
   conducive to large dendritic ice crystal growth.=20=20   
      
   Although lower-level temperatures across portions of western through   
   northern Kentucky are fluctuating a bit, from just above to below   
   freezing, cold advection to the northwest of a developing frontal   
   wave is expected to support snow or a transition to snow as heavier   
   precipitation commences.  As precipitable water content increases to   
   0.6 to 0.7 + inches along the frontal zone, guidance suggests at   
   least a couple hour period of heavy snow rates on the order of 1-2   
   inches per hour is possible, developing near or to the west/north of   
   Hopkinsville and Bowling Green before spreading toward areas   
   around/north/northeast of Lexington between 05-09Z.   
      
   ..Kerr.. 12/02/2025   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=   
   g!9vIEw4K2HEoYo4_1PQBirk4cMUhH-g0rCCbB_AXxNphDeFI3or2JolgQxg_ZzC5LrJfYS29PH=   
   UNrjwnT9106pYIXYCY$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...   
      
   LAT...LON   39068358 38618257 37878387 37028611 36468814 36448918   
               37308815 38238585 39068358=20   
      
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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