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   ACUS01 KWNS 020057   
   SWODY1   
   SPC AC 020055   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0655 PM CST Mon Dec 01 2025   
      
   Valid 020100Z - 021200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS   
   OF THE ALABAMA AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE COASTS...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Isolated severe storms are possible across coastal portions of   
   Alabama and the Florida Panhandle late tonight into early Tuesday   
   morning.   
      
   ...01Z Update...   
   No changes were made to the severe-thunderstorm probabilities with   
   this update. The latest surface/buoy observations and mosaic radar   
   data indicate an increasingly defined frontal wave low centered   
   about 60 miles south of the LA coast. This feature will continue   
   evolving east-northeastward along a marine boundary that arcs   
   northeastward and then eastward offshore of coastal MS, AL, and the   
   western FL Panhandle. This boundary demarcates the northern bound of   
   fully modified Gulf moisture (upper 60s to lower 70s boundary-layer   
   dewpoints). Ahead of the frontal wave low, dewpoints are still in   
   the upper 50s along the aforementioned coastal areas. However, as a   
   southerly low-level jet continues strengthening to around 40 kt, the   
   marine boundary and related moisture should impinge on the immediate   
   coastal areas in the 08-12Z time frame.   
      
   Given the development of weak (albeit sufficient) surface-based   
   buoyancy amid enlarging clockwise-curved low-level hodographs   
   (EVX/MOB VWPs already sampling 250-350 m2/s2 0-1km SRH), the risk   
   for a couple organized clusters/supercells approaching coastal AL   
   and the FL Panhandle will increase (especially in the 06-12Z time   
   frame). Any stronger/organized storms will pose a risk of a couple   
   tornadoes/waterspouts and locally damaging gusts.   
      
   ..Weinman.. 12/02/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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