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   Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1256   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   734 PM EST Mon Dec 01 2025   
      
   Areas affected...portions of the central Gulf Coast   
      
   Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible   
      
   Valid 020034Z - 020634Z   
      
   Summary...A combination of cell training and backbuilding should   
   continue to lead to hourly rain amounts to 1.75" with local totals   
   to 4", which could cause flash flooding in urban areas.   
      
   Discussion...Instability across portions of the central Gulf Coast   
   continues to rise ahead of a negatively-tilted shortwave across   
   OK.  Precipitable water values are ~1.6" per GPS data and MU CAPE   
   values of 500+ J/kg lie across the southeast tip of LA and   
   continue shifting north towards the MS/AL barrier islands.  Radar   
   estimates from LIX/Hammond LA indicate that hourly amounts peaked   
   near 1.75" not far from the eastern suburbs of New Orleans   
   recently, with local totals above 2.5" so far.  Occasional hourly   
   rain amounts to 1.5" have been seen in backbuilding convection in   
   southernmost AL.  Effective bulk shear of 25-45 kts lurks across   
   the area which is helping to form a band within an area of 850 hPa   
   confluence.   
      
   The band is showing some signs of shifting northward across   
   southern AL and slightly eastward in southeast LA.  Additional   
   activity south of the LA/MS coasts within a convergence zone which   
   extends from northwest Cuba towards the central Gulf Coast could   
   advect northward towards portions of this area in the next several   
   hours and cause additional issues.  The guidance has not been   
   ideal in this region thus far -- too far north and too light --   
   though the 18z hi-res NAM appears to have the best idea, so used   
   it as a starting point for the MPD bounds, making some adjustments   
   based on radar reflectivity trends.  The region has been dry, so   
   flash flood guidance values are high.  Hourly amounts to 1.75" and   
   local totals to 4" appear possible where cells train and/or   
   backbuild, which would be most problematic in urban areas.   
      
   Roth   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=   
   DZ3fjg!6SdogcIUxTtroqQTUwxSALeN9Fo_uMvC5I4pW6eAAjX9DWw67VnyMfB31nkTA5_xaSPt=   
   yY_XxORQJb-wb9BRCh179PU$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...BMX...LIX...MOB...TAE...   
      
   ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...   
      
   LAT...LON   31928616 31298582 30558670 30248743 30078846=20   
               29938870 29778905 29439024 29689078 30768934=20   
               31778728=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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