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   Excessive Rainfall Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   303 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2025   
      
   Day 1   
   Valid 16Z Mon Dec 01 2025 - 12Z Tue Dec 02 2025   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF   
   THE GULF COAST AND DEEP SOUTH...   
      
   ...16Z Update...   
   The Marginal Risk across portions of the Gulf Coast and Deep South   
   remains unchanged from the overnight cycle. 12Z HREF and and 6Z REFS   
   guidance are in good alignment depicting an uptick in shower and   
   thunderstorm coverage today along the northern flank of a   
   stationary front and surface wave. Low probabilities of rainfall   
   rates exceeding 1"/hr suggest the excessive rainfall threat today   
   should remain isolated at best, although some issues can't be   
   ruled out in sensitive urban areas.   
      
   Asherman   
      
   ...Previous Discussion...   
   Very few changes were needed to the Marginal Risk area that   
   stretches from the Upper Texas Coast north and east along the Gulf   
   coast and into central Alabama and Georgia. A progressive shortwave   
   trough will round the southern periphery of an expansive upper   
   level low centered north of Hudson Bay, well into Canada. The   
   shortwave trough and associated 120-150 kt upper level zonal jet   
   will provide the forcing to allow storms to strengthen as southerly   
   flow off the Gulf provides ample moisture for the storms. The   
   limiting factor for heavy rainfall will be a lack of   
   instability...and while values could reach into the 500-1,000 J/kg   
   range, this along with the fast movement of the storms should keep   
   the flooding potential low along the Gulf Coast and Deep South. The   
   moisture moving in off the Gulf will be somewhat anomalous for   
   early December, with PWATs exceeding 1.75 inches along the coast,   
   or about 2 sigma above normal. A sweeping cold front will allow for   
   some organization to the storms. With heavy rain in portions of   
   Southeast Texas over the past 24 hours, locally saturated soils   
   could favor isolated instances of flash flooding in and around the   
   Houston area.   
      
   Further east, soils are much drier due to a distinct lack of   
   rainfall...however, this area will have more time before the cold   
   front sweeps through for storms to train over the same areas. This   
   is most likely to occur in a corridor from around Pensacola, FL   
   northeast to south of Atlanta. This area has very high FFGs, so   
   even here the threat for flash flooding will be low, as a similar   
   lack of instability should both hold storm intensity in check, and   
   at least at first the rainfall will be very beneficial by soaking   
   a parched landscape.   
      
   Wegman   
      
   Day 2   
   Valid 12Z Tue Dec 02 2025 - 12Z Wed Dec 03 2025   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   Surface/low level convergence associated with a frontal boundary   
   forecast to translate eastward into the western Atlantic after 18Z   
   may allow for a band of SW to NE training heavy rain/thunderstorms   
   early in the period over eastern North Carolina. Weak instability=20   
   and precipitable water values increasing to over 1.5 inches along   
   the coast could support rain rates over 2 in/hr, however, recent=20   
   hires guidance maintains the potential for 3 to 6 inch totals=20   
   offshore/east of the Outer Banks. While the threat is non-zero, it   
   is low enough to not warrant a risk area at this time.   
      
   Otto   
      
      
   Day 3   
   Valid 12Z Wed Dec 03 2025 - 12Z Thu Dec 04 2025   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   The very beginning of a multi-day rainfall event will begin to   
   unfold Wednesday night along portions of the Upper Texas and   
   Louisiana Gulf Coasts. Mainly for the 06-12Z time frame Thursday   
   morning, the 12Z guidance continues to suggest most of the=20   
   heaviest rainfall from heavy showers/thunderstorms will remain=20   
   offshore. However, at least some of that rain could make its way=20   
   inland. The threat remains sub- Marginal, but the area will=20   
   continue to be evaluated for a later introduction of a Marginal=20   
   Risk with future updates.   
      
   Otto/Wegman   
      
      
   Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8zQbr6HTXhYpZ8rbCXnzan001Ht0MUibbYIbYlbvcIwE=   
   35wKpr3G-SfJi8dporPSCHpMz_8WDGbcy-CdP7hpRvRP_-k$=20   
   Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8zQbr6HTXhYpZ8rbCXnzan001Ht0MUibbYIbYlbvcIwE=   
   35wKpr3G-SfJi8dporPSCHpMz_8WDGbcy-CdP7hpP2sO2jQ$=20   
   Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8zQbr6HTXhYpZ8rbCXnzan001Ht0MUibbYIbYlbvcIwE=   
   35wKpr3G-SfJi8dporPSCHpMz_8WDGbcy-CdP7hpz0G0o9U$=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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