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   ACUS01 KWNS 011939   
   SWODY1   
   SPC AC 011937   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0137 PM CST Mon Dec 01 2025   
      
   Valid 012000Z - 021200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS   
   OF THE ALABAMA AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE COASTS...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Isolated severe storms are possible across coastal portions of   
   Alabama and the Florida Panhandle late tonight into early Tuesday   
   morning.   
      
   ...20z Update...   
   The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required for   
   the severe-risk area. Adjustments to the thunder line were made   
   across east/northeast TX to account for recent convective trends   
   where weak elevated thunderstorms have developed ahead of a weak   
   mid-level wave. Isolated thunderstorms may continue across the   
   greater Texarkana region over the next few hours before gradually   
   diminishing by late afternoon. See the discussion below for   
   additional details.   
      
   ..Moore.. 12/01/2025   
      
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST Mon Dec 01 2025/   
      
   ...Gulf Coast...   
      
   A large-scale upper trough oriented from the Upper Midwest to the   
   southern High Plains late this morning will continue eastward   
   through the period, becoming positioned from the Great Lakes to the   
   Lower MS Valley by Tuesday morning. Another weaker mid/upper   
   shortwave located over the northwest Gulf will lift northeast across   
   the central/eastern Gulf coast vicinity while merging with the   
   aforementioned synoptic-scale trough. As this occurs, a broad area   
   of stronger south/southwesterly low to midlevel flow will overspread   
   the Gulf coast/Southeast. This warm advection regime will allow low   
   to mid 60s F dewpoints to impinge on immediate coastal areas in AL   
   and the FL Panhandle ahead of an eastward advancing cold front late   
   tonight.   
      
   Within the warm frontal zone, modest surface-based instability   
   should develop after 06z. Forecast soundings indicate supercell wind   
   profiles will be present. However, poor lapse rates and SBCAPE   
   generally less than 750 J/kg will limit updraft intensity. Storms   
   moving inland from the Gulf also will have limited area before   
   becoming elevated to the cool side of the warm front. Nevertheless,   
   transient supercells could produce a tornado or two, and/or   
   localized strong gusts, early Tuesday morning. The risk may continue   
   north and east into portions of northern FL on Tuesday morning at   
   the beginning of the Day 2 period (see Day 2 Convective Outlook for   
   more details).   
      
   Additional isolated elevated thunderstorms will be possible from the   
   TX coastal Plain into portions of the Lower MS Valley today. This   
   activity is occurring within persistent, broad large-scale ascent   
   and midlevel warm advection atop a cooler/drier boundary-layer.   
   Severe storms are not expected with this activity.   
      
   ...Coastal Carolinas...   
      
   A prior cold frontal passage and cold air damming across the   
   Piedmont will generally keep 60s F dewpoints offshore through the   
   period. Some guidance does bring a sliver of better boundary layer   
   moisture along the immediate coast/Outer Banks vicinity the last   
   couple hours of the period. However, any appreciable instability and   
   stronger convection is expected to remain offshore through 12z   
   Tuesday.   
      
   $$   
      
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