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   ACUS03 KWNS 011919   
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   SPC AC 011918   
      
   Day 3 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0118 PM CST Mon Dec 01 2025   
      
   Valid 031200Z - 041200Z   
      
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Thunderstorms are possible over southeast Texas into Louisiana on   
   Wednesday into early Thursday morning. Severe storms appear   
   unlikely.   
      
   ...Synopsis...   
   Progressive mid-level flow will amplify and persist over the US   
   Wednesday as broad troughing intensifies over the East. Weak ridging   
   over the central US will be enhanced by an upstream trough over the   
   Rockies and Great Basin moving toward the Plains into early   
   Thursday. At the surface, a cold and dry air mass is expected over   
   much of the country in the wake of a prior frontal passage. This   
   front will continue south over much of the Gulf and off the coast of   
   the Atlantic, as a second arctic front moves south over the central   
   US.   
      
   The only exception to widespread offshore flow will be across   
   portions of the western Gulf where the front will stall near the   
   TX/LA Coasts. Ahead of the second upper trough, warm-air advection   
   will support some southerly flow along the coast as a weak surface   
   wave develops over the Gulf. Weak elevated buoyancy and ascent will   
   support thunderstorm development across portions of southeast TX and   
   southern LA Wednesday afternoon/evening into early Thursday morning.   
   A stronger elevated storm or two with small hail is possible early   
   Thursday, but given the limited buoyancy, a sustained severe risk   
   appears unlikely.   
      
   ..Lyons.. 12/01/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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