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   Day 2 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1126 AM CST Mon Dec 01 2025   
      
   Valid 021200Z - 031200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS   
   OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Scattered thunderstorms are expected Tuesday across the Southeast to   
   the Atlantic Coastline. A damaging gust or brief tornado are   
   possible mainly Tuesday morning along the Florida Panhandle.   
      
   ...FL Gulf Coast...   
   A broad upper trough over the eastern US will intensify as it moves   
   eastward early Tuesday. As ascent from the upper trough overspreads   
   the Southeastern CONUS, an initially modest surface trough along a   
   stalled frontal zone will rapidly deepen and organize into a strong   
   coastal low, moving from the FL Gulf Coast to the Carolinas by early   
   Wednesday. The front will sharpen and surge south behind the low and   
   upper trough as high pressure and strong cold advection develop over   
   the eastern half of the US.   
      
   Early in the day, southerly low level-winds ahead of the front and   
   deepening low will allow for modest northward return of modified   
   Gulf moisture over parts of FL and far southern GA. Despite a   
   relatively cool boundary-layer limiting the northward advance of the   
   more moist air mass, weak destabilization is expected for the first   
   few hours of the period. Isolated strong to occasionally severe   
   thunderstorms may move onshore across the FL Panhandle/Big bend   
   region before spreading northeastward across the northern Peninsula.   
   Despite modest mid-level lapse rates, around 500 J/kg MLCAPE may   
   overlap with large low-level hodographs and strong deep-layer shear   
   favorable for transient supercells/line segments capable of isolated   
   damaging gusts or perhaps a brief tornado. The severe threat should   
   end by midday as surface winds veer and the front accelerates   
   offshore.   
      
   ...Outer Banks...   
   As the upper trough and surface low intensify and shift eastward,   
   the front will gradually move toward the coast with an increasingly   
   narrow warm sector. Numerous thunderstorms are expected in the   
   near-shore waters early Tuesday into the evening hours. While most   
   model soundings show cool and stable conditions near the surface, a   
   brief window could exist for a storm to move onshore from late   
   Tuesday morning into the early afternoon. Neutral stability at the   
   surface amid very strong low-level warm advection could allow for a   
   brief tornado given supercell wind profiles. However, buoyancy will   
   be very weak and any risk will be constrained to the immediate   
   coast. Thus, while a brief tornado cannot be ruled out, the   
   short-lived severe risk appears very limited before the low and   
   trailing front move offshore in the afternoon.   
      
   ..Lyons.. 12/01/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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