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   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1000 AM CST Mon Dec 01 2025   
      
   Valid 011630Z - 021200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE   
   LATE TONIGHT ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA   
   PANHANDLE...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Isolated severe storms are possible across coastal portions of   
   Alabama and the Florida Panhandle late tonight into early Tuesday   
   morning.   
      
   ...Gulf Coast...   
      
   A large-scale upper trough oriented from the Upper Midwest to the   
   southern High Plains late this morning will continue eastward   
   through the period, becoming positioned from the Great Lakes to the   
   Lower MS Valley by Tuesday morning. Another weaker mid/upper   
   shortwave located over the northwest Gulf will lift northeast across   
   the central/eastern Gulf coast vicinity while merging with the   
   aforementioned synoptic-scale trough. As this occurs, a broad area   
   of stronger south/southwesterly low to midlevel flow will overspread   
   the Gulf coast/Southeast. This warm advection regime will allow low   
   to mid 60s F dewpoints to impinge on immediate coastal areas in AL   
   and the FL Panhandle ahead of an eastward advancing cold front late   
   tonight.   
      
   Within the warm frontal zone, modest surface-based instability   
   should develop after 06z. Forecast soundings indicate supercell wind   
   profiles will be present. However, poor lapse rates and SBCAPE   
   generally less than 750 J/kg will limit updraft intensity. Storms   
   moving inland from the Gulf also will have limited area before   
   becoming elevated to the cool side of the warm front. Nevertheless,   
   transient supercells could produce a tornado or two, and/or   
   localized strong gusts, early Tuesday morning. The risk may continue   
   north and east into portions of northern FL on Tuesday morning at   
   the beginning of the Day 2 period (see Day 2 Convective Outlook for   
   more details).   
      
   Additional isolated elevated thunderstorms will be possible from the   
   TX coastal Plain into portions of the Lower MS Valley today. This   
   activity is occurring within persistent, broad large-scale ascent   
   and midlevel warm advection atop a cooler/drier boundary-layer.   
   Severe storms are not expected with this activity.   
      
   ...Coastal Carolinas...   
      
   A prior cold frontal passage and cold air damming across the   
   Piedmont will generally keep 60s F dewpoints offshore through the   
   period. Some guidance does bring a sliver of better boundary layer   
   moisture along the immediate coast/Outer Banks vicinity the last   
   couple hours of the period. However, any appreciable instability and   
   stronger convection is expected to remain offshore through 12z   
   Tuesday.   
      
   ..Leitman.. 12/01/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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