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   ACUS01 KWNS 011246   
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   SPC AC 011245   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0645 AM CST Mon Dec 01 2025   
      
   Valid 011300Z - 021200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL   
   PORTIONS OF ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Isolated severe storms are possible across coastal portions of   
   Alabama and the Florida Panhandle late tonight into early Tuesday   
   morning.   
      
   ...Synopsis...   
   Early-morning satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave   
   trough moving eastward through the Four Corners vicinity, within the   
   base of a larger upper trough that extends from the Upper MS Valley   
   through AZ. This shortwave is forecast to pivot eastward and then   
   northeastward throughout the period, moving across the   
   southern/central High Plains, OK/KS, and the Mid-South before ending   
   the period over the upper OH Valley. A strong mid-level jetlet (i.e.   
   90 kt at 500-mb) is anticipated within the base of this shortwave,   
   with a more expansive strengthening of the mid-level southwesterly   
   flow anticipated across much of area preceding the wave (i.e. from   
   the mid/lower MS Valley into much of the eastern CONUS).   
      
   Even with the strengthening wind fields aloft and large-scale ascent   
   attendant to this deepening wave, the limited time since the   
   previous frontal intrusion will keep any low-level moisture return   
   confined largely to the immediate Gulf Coast. Even so, a few   
   elevated thunderstorms are possible from this morning into the   
   afternoon across the TX Gulf Coast, with much of this activity   
   supported by ascent and warm-air advection attendant to a more   
   subtle, lower-amplitude shortwave currently moving into south TX.   
   Phasing of this lower-amplitude shortwave with the stronger   
   shortwave farther north will support a more expansive strengthening   
   of the low-level south-southwesterly flow late in the period. This   
   phasing will also contribute to a deepening of a surface low   
   progressing northeastward along a warm front moving northward into   
   the FL Panhandle. Some severe potential is possible late tonight   
   into early tomorrow as this surface low interacts with an   
   increasingly moist and buoyant airmass over the FL Panhandle.   
      
   ...Coastal AL and FL Panhandle...   
   Most guidance brings mid 60s dewpoints into immediate coastal region   
   of AL and the FL Panhandle during the last 4 hours of the period   
   (08Z-12Z Tuesday), just ahead of the surface low. This increasing   
   low-level moisture should erode any low-level convective inhibition   
   and result in an airmass supportive of surface-based thunderstorms.   
   Buoyancy will be modest, but still sufficient, for deep updrafts,   
   amid veering low-level wind profiles and robust mid-level flow. As a   
   result, a few supercells could be maintained or develop as the warm   
   sector convection moves ashore from coastal AL across the FL   
   Panhandle. Primary risks with these storms are a brief tornado   
   and/or localized damaging gusts over the immediate coast. This   
   threat will continue past 12Z Tuesday into northern FL, which is   
   discussed in the Day 2 Convective Outlook.   
      
   ...Coastal Carolinas...   
   Strengthening low-level flow will contribute to increasing warm-air   
   advection showers and thunderstorms late Monday through early   
   Tuesday. Consensus within the guidance keeps the higher low-level   
   moisture just offshore, and the majority of this activity will be   
   elevated atop a strong low-level inversion. This should temper the   
   overall severe potential. Immediate coastal regions south of MHX may   
   see higher dewpoints right at the end of the period, but any   
   stronger storms are still expected to remain offshore.   
      
   ..Mosier/Dean.. 12/01/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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