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   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
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   ACUS11 KWNS 011237   
   SWOMCD   
   SPC MCD 011237=20   
   ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-011700-   
      
   Mesoscale Discussion 2242   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0637 AM CST Mon Dec 01 2025   
      
   Areas affected...Northeast OK...western/central AR...far southwest   
   MO   
      
   Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation=20   
      
   Valid 011237Z - 011700Z   
      
   SUMMARY...Freezing rain may increase across parts of central   
   Arkansas this morning, while light mixed precipitation will continue   
   to spread from northeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas and far   
   southwest Missouri.   
      
   DISCUSSION...Mixed precipitation (mainly in the form of shallow   
   convective showers) has been spreading east-northeastward across   
   central/eastern OK this morning. The 00Z OUN, 06Z LMN, and 12Z FWD   
   soundings, along with recent objective mesoanalyses, suggest that a   
   temperature inversion above 700 mb is limiting the depth of the   
   convective showers, while dryness below 800 mb initially limited   
   precipitation rates. However, the regenerative nature of this   
   precipitation has resulted in evaporative moistening and cooling of   
   the column, allowing for at least light accumulations of   
   precipitation at the ground. Some icing has been noted in the OKC   
   area, and light ice accretion and/or sleet accumulation may spread   
   east-northeastward from northeast OK into northwest AR and far   
   southwest MO. Some snow may mix with the precipitation in this area,   
   though with the primary ascent and saturation occurring generally   
   below the dendritic growth zone, a tendency toward sleet or freezing   
   rain may persist in these areas as well.=20   
      
   Farther south, stronger buoyancy (as observed in the 12Z FWD   
   sounding with MUCAPE above 100 J/kg) may support somewhat heavier   
   precipitation rates from southwest into central AR later this   
   morning, within a persistent low-level warm-advection regime. While   
   low-level temperatures are more marginal compared to areas farther   
   north, evaporative cooling and relatively dry/cold surface   
   trajectories from the northeast may allow for some ice accretion,   
   especially on elevated surfaces. A transition to primarily rain may   
   occur from southwest to northeast by late morning, due to continued   
   warm advection and muted diurnal heating.   
      
   ..Dean.. 12/01/2025   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=   
   g!4x3U_D_RRiwpgCEMvwBjSRzjAKESpU4LXUemaSD0zcTYsIZcmGcUH4gPS8PTY3plS7n5F9K5a=   
   zQMUbSCyY8rmyh7yzA$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...   
      
   LAT...LON   35399566 35989597 36629598 36859458 36509267 35449188   
               34449201 33789247 33749316 34059431 34529443 35189452   
               35399566=20   
      
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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