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   ACUS01 KWNS 010544   
   SWODY1   
   SPC AC 010543   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1143 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025   
      
   Valid 011200Z - 021200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER COASTAL   
   PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Isolated severe storms are possible across coastal portions of the   
   Florida Panhandle late Monday night into early Tuesday morning.   
      
   ...Synopsis...   
   A positively tilted midlevel trough will advance eastward from the   
   central Rockies/High Plains to the Mid MS Valley through the period.   
   To the south of this predominant feature, a subtle/low-amplitude   
   impulse will track east-northeastward across the Gulf Coast states   
   -- gradually phasing with the aforementioned trough late in the   
   period. As this phasing occurs, low-level south-southwesterly flow   
   will strengthen beneath a belt of 50-kt midlevel westerly flow in   
   the 06-12Z time frame -- with the strongest low-level mass response   
   focusing over the Florida Panhandle. In the low-levels, an   
   increasingly defined frontal wave will develop eastward along an   
   east/west-oriented marine front draped along the immediate central   
   Gulf Coast -- approaching the western FL Panhandle by around 08-09Z   
   (with varying timing/placement among the latest model guidance).   
      
   ...Florida Panhandle...   
   As the frontal wave evolves eastward in the vicinity of the FL   
   Panhandle, most guidance depicts middle/upper 60s boundary-layer   
   dewpoints overspreading the immediate coast between 08-12Z. Forecast   
   soundings suggest 67-68F dewpoints will yield weak surface-based   
   buoyancy over the coast. Any offshore supercells/organized clusters   
   that can move/develop into this weak (albeit sufficient)   
   surface-based buoyancy amid enlarging, clockwise-curved low-level   
   hodographs will pose a localized tornado and damaging-wind risk over   
   the immediate coast. Despite a potentially limited spatial/temporal   
   overlap between the surface-based buoyancy and favorable low-level   
   shear, 2-percent tornado and 5-percent wind probabilities are   
   warranted where this overlap should be maximized ahead of the   
   frontal wave.   
      
   ..Weinman.. 12/01/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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