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   QPFERD   
      
   Excessive Rainfall Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   535 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025   
      
   Day 1   
   Valid 01Z Mon Dec 01 2025 - 12Z Mon Dec 01 2025   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   Roth/Asherman   
      
      
   Day 2   
   Valid 12Z Mon Dec 01 2025 - 12Z Tue Dec 02 2025   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF   
   THE GULF COAST AND DEEP SOUTH...   
      
   2030Z Update...   
      
   The 12Z multi-model consensus overall shows little change to   
   continuity with respect to QPF and the broader synoptic scale mass   
   field pattern. Thus, the Marginal Risk area remains in place   
   across portions of the Gulf Coast and through the Deep South.   
      
   Orrison   
      
   Previous discussion...   
      
   A fast-moving positively tilted shortwave trough will move east in   
   parallel with a strong cold front that will sweep across the South,   
   drawing abundant Gulf moisture for December north and east along   
   the frontal interface. The enhanced lift associated with both the   
   shortwave trough and attendant jet streak will favor cyclogenesis,   
   especially Monday night as the low forms across far southern   
   Georgia and coastal South Carolina. While the cold front will push   
   the Gulf moisture with embedded thunderstorms along to the east, by   
   the time the low forms along the front, it will have generally   
   stalled out, with little southward progress. This should act to   
   keep the pattern quite progressive, even if areas will still see   
   heavy rain from thunderstorms. Further, the soil moisture levels   
   across much of the South are below to well below average. This   
   should support the soils largely soaking up the mostly stratiform   
   (albeit with embedded convection) rain. There were few changes made   
   to the Marginal Risk area, as the area of greatest concern for   
   isolated instances of flash flooding are the urban centers from   
   Houston east through New Orleans, Montgomery, and Atlanta.   
      
   Wegman   
      
      
   Day 3   
   Valid 12Z Tue Dec 02 2025 - 12Z Wed Dec 03 2025   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   Orrison   
      
      
   Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_LiFT3s9b-64WUnW1iTPMRizNJDA6ZxTaW0QuE057bBJ=   
   VRuBBrN1cqOlFWpsZ8X_R438Db0_oXQjEyGNajV1eS9NxZA$=20   
   Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_LiFT3s9b-64WUnW1iTPMRizNJDA6ZxTaW0QuE057bBJ=   
   VRuBBrN1cqOlFWpsZ8X_R438Db0_oXQjEyGNajV1MsaJJ00$=20   
   Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_LiFT3s9b-64WUnW1iTPMRizNJDA6ZxTaW0QuE057bBJ=   
   VRuBBrN1cqOlFWpsZ8X_R438Db0_oXQjEyGNajV1ViP3ANI$=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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