TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 167199.weather@1:2320/105 2d945ca7   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS03 KWNS 301922   
   SWODY3   
   SPC AC 301921   
      
   Day 3 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0121 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025   
      
   Valid 021200Z - 031200Z   
      
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Scattered thunderstorms are expected through Tuesday across the   
   Southeast to the Atlantic Coastline. The risk for severe   
   thunderstorms currently appears limited.   
      
   ...Synopsis...   
   A surface cyclone is forecast to intensify along the Atlantic coast   
   through the day Tuesday as a broad upper-level wave moves into the   
   eastern CONUS. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms appear probable   
   across parts of the Southeast and portions of the southern   
   Mid-Atlantic as strong synoptic-scale ascent overspreads a   
   marginally buoyant air mass.   
      
   ...Florida Panhandle into northern Florida/southern Georgia...   
   An initially weak surface low should be developing across the FL   
   Panhandle by around 12 UTC Tuesday morning with isolated to   
   scattered thunderstorms ongoing within a strengthening warm   
   advection regime. While elevated thunderstorms will likely develop   
   across the broader region, a narrow surface-based warm sector may   
   materialize from the FL Panhandle eastward into northern FL/Southern   
   GA through 18 UTC. Medium-range ensemble guidance suggests SBCAPE   
   values may increase to 250-500 J/kg before an advancing cold front   
   shunts any surface-based buoyancy offshore by early/mid-afternoon.   
   More bullish solutions suggest that convection may be sufficiently   
   deep to realize the strongly sheared environment that should   
   manifest as the cyclone intensifies. However, the general model   
   consensus is that buoyancy profiles will likely remain too weak to   
   support robust updraft development, limiting confidence in the   
   potential for an appreciable severe threat. Even the typically   
   aggressive RRFS depicts only a weak/transient updraft/UH signal   
   across this region, suggesting that the overall severe threat is   
   limited. While risk probabilities are withheld, thermodynamic trends   
   will continue to be monitored given the very favorable kinematic   
   environment.   
      
   ..Moore.. 11/30/2025   
      
   $$   
      
   = = =   
   To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to   
   https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email   
   Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.   
      
   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)   
   SEEN-BY: 10/0 1 102/401 103/0 705 104/119 105/81 106/201 114/10 120/302   
   SEEN-BY: 124/5016 128/187 129/14 153/7715 154/10 30 50 110 700 218/0   
   SEEN-BY: 218/1 215 601 700 810 840 860 880 220/10 20 30 90 221/6 226/18   
   SEEN-BY: 226/30 44 50 227/114 229/110 134 206 300 307 317 400 426   
   SEEN-BY: 229/428 470 664 700 705 266/512 291/111 301/1 320/219 322/757   
   SEEN-BY: 342/200 396/45 460/58 633/280 712/848 902/26 2320/0 105 304   
   SEEN-BY: 3634/12 5020/400 5075/35   
   PATH: 2320/105 154/10 301/1 218/700 229/426