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   ACUS02 KWNS 301714   
   SWODY2   
   SPC AC 301712   
      
   Day 2 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1112 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025   
      
   Valid 011200Z - 021200Z   
      
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will develop along the   
   Gulf Coast Monday morning through Tuesday morning. Severe   
   thunderstorms are not currently expected.   
      
   ...Synopsis...   
   A surface cold front pushing into the northern Gulf today is   
   forecast to stall early Monday morning before gradually advancing   
   northward as a warm front late Monday night/early Tuesday morning   
   ahead of an approaching upper wave. Elevated thunderstorms are   
   possible beginning Monday morning within the warm advection regime   
   across the TX Gulf Coast into portions of the Southeast and Carolina   
   coast through the early morning hours Tuesday.   
      
   ...FL Panhandle Coast...   
   Any appreciable chance for surface-based convection will likely come   
   during the 09-12 UTC Tuesday period as a surface low intensifies   
   over GA and supports inland return of mid-60 F dewpoints into the FL   
   Panhandle region. Despite this moisture return, poor mid-level lapse   
   rates will limit overall buoyancy values with most guidance   
   depicting surface-based lifted indices of around -1 Celsius. Strong   
   low-level kinematic fields in the vicinity of the intensifying low   
   could potentially support a severe wind/tornado threat if low-level   
   moistening/destabilization is sufficient for deep convection;   
   however, most forecast solutions suggest dewpoints above 67 F may be   
   required for this to occur. Getting such dewpoints inland beyond the   
   immediate coast prior to 12z appears improbable (25% chance) based   
   on recent ensemble guidance, so any severe probabilities continue to   
   be withheld.   
      
   ..Moore.. 11/30/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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