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   QPFERD   
      
   Excessive Rainfall Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   1043 AM EST Sun Nov 30 2025   
      
   Day 1   
   Valid 16Z Sun Nov 30 2025 - 12Z Mon Dec 01 2025   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   Asherman   
      
   Day 2   
   Valid 12Z Mon Dec 01 2025 - 12Z Tue Dec 02 2025   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF   
   THE GULF COAST AND DEEP SOUTH...   
      
   A fast-moving positively tilted shortwave trough will move east in   
   parallel with a strong cold front that will sweep across the South,   
   drawing abundant Gulf moisture for December north and east along   
   the frontal interface. The enhanced lift associated with both the   
   shortwave trough and attendant jet streak will favor cyclogenesis,   
   especially Monday night as the low forms across far southern   
   Georgia and coastal South Carolina. While the cold front will push   
   the Gulf moisture with embedded thunderstorms along to the east, by   
   the time the low forms along the front, it will have generally   
   stalled out, with little southward progress. This should act to   
   keep the pattern quite progressive, even if areas will still see   
   heavy rain from thunderstorms. Further, the soil moisture levels   
   across much of the South are below to well below average. This   
   should support the soils largely soaking up the mostly stratiform   
   (albeit with embedded convection) rain. There were few changes made   
   to the Marginal Risk area, as the area of greatest concern for   
   isolated instances of flash flooding are the urban centers from   
   Houston east through New Orleans, Montgomery, and Atlanta.   
      
   Wegman   
      
   Day 3   
   Valid 12Z Tue Dec 02 2025 - 12Z Wed Dec 03 2025   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   The inherited Marginal Risk along much of the Eastern Seaboard from   
   South Carolina north through Massachusetts was dropped, resulting   
   in another blank ERO map with this update. The progressive nature   
   of the low as it moves up the coast, despite somewhat rapid deepening,   
   has resulted in an eastward shift of the heaviest precipitation   
   more off the coast. For those areas not impacted by wintry weather   
   in the interior Northeast/Appalachians, the rainfall along the   
   coastal plain will be almost entirely stratiform, with any   
   convection confined perhaps to the eastern Carolinas. Even in the   
   Carolinas any convection will be fast-moving and embedded within a   
   much larger stratiform rain shield. Thus, the combination of lower   
   forecast rainfall amounts and the stratiform nature of the rain   
   should result in a rather long-duration light rain along the coast   
   in most areas. The heaviest rains Tuesday could even remain east of   
   the I-95 corridor, and thus largely missing the bigger metros. Just   
   like in the Deep South, soils along the Eastern Seaboard are also   
   drier to much drier than normal for this time of year. Thus, any   
   rainfall will be largely beneficial in these areas as well.   
      
   Wegman   
      
      
   Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_KVy7NeRTHPmaaZf-d1uR3213_SfjG_6JEOpnnq1Wvdr=   
   veH49ODNUmtGu1uNoi1nLlZCfvoMFRIWYMWsS9WFxAbV6x4$=20   
   Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_KVy7NeRTHPmaaZf-d1uR3213_SfjG_6JEOpnnq1Wvdr=   
   veH49ODNUmtGu1uNoi1nLlZCfvoMFRIWYMWsS9WFqyaEkyw$=20   
   Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_KVy7NeRTHPmaaZf-d1uR3213_SfjG_6JEOpnnq1Wvdr=   
   veH49ODNUmtGu1uNoi1nLlZCfvoMFRIWYMWsS9WFX5YvODo$=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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