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   Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1255   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   1056 PM EST Sat Nov 29 2025   
      
   Areas affected...Central and Upper Texas Coastal Plain...   
      
   Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible   
      
   Valid 300400Z - 301000Z   
      
   SUMMARY...Slow moving, pre-frontal cells with rates of 2"/hr   
   eventually merge with south-southeastward pressing cold front   
   convection resulting in localized 2-4" totals in 1-3 hours.=20   
   Isolated flash flooding remains possible, especially near urban   
   centers.   
      
   DISCUSSION...GOES-E 3.9um SWIR highlights a few low level   
   boundaries that will remain the focus of scattered thunderstorm   
   activity through the overnight period.  The main being the surging   
   cold front being reinforced by favorable upper-level orientations   
   to support steepening of theta-E gradient while increasing   
   northerly surface wind flow to over 20-25kts nearly counter to the   
   weaker but solid onshore flow.  Currently active convection along   
   the leading edge of the front is slow moving from Burleson to Polk   
   county as the winds are not fully intersecting with the line, but   
   will likely be propagating southward in the next hour or so.  The   
   other boundary is the return moisture plume off the western Gulf   
   (which arches similar to the Lower TX Gulf coast before angling   
   east- northeast just south of the aforementioned convection).  Tds   
   in the upper 60s to near 70 can be traced best in CIRA LPW sfc-850   
   and 850-700mb layers covering much of the MPD area of concern   
   across the Central and Upper Texas Coastal Plain.   
      
   Onshore flow is also increasing to 15-20kts resulting in   
   frictional convergence near coast.  Conditionally unstable airmass   
   with MLCAPEs of 1000-1250 J/kg remain weakly capped but there are   
   some signs in satellite imagery of some weak cu field near   
   Victoria, TX  as well as an isolated weakening supercells   
   northeast of Galveston Bay.  The merging of the boundaries is also   
   allowing a westward expansion of new development upstream into   
   Bastrop/Caldwell county vicinity.=20   
      
   Total deep moisture of 1.5" as noted in the CIRA LPW is loaded   
   below 700mb, but there is solid deep saturation.  These isolated   
   cells driven by frictional convergence will be slow moving and   
   eventually capable of 1-2"/hr rates.  Spotty 2-3" totals will   
   occur in 1-2hrs, but as they mature and expand the slower moving   
   cells along the cold front will have started increased forward   
   speed and with very high low level moisture flux convergence will   
   have the capability of 1-1.25"/15min rainfall totals as they   
   intersect/merge with the cells across the Plain.   
      
   00z HREF probabilities continue to suggest 3"/3hr totals in the   
   20-30% range (3"/6hr over 50%) which is fairly impressive given   
   the strength of the updraft due to instability is fairly limited.=20   
   While the overall coverage will continue to be limited, spots of   
   3-4" totals are probable through 09z.   This places sufficient   
   overlap of FFG exceedance (as 1hr FFG is 2.5-3" and 3hr is 3-4")   
   for possible localized incident or two of flash/rapid inundation   
   flooding.  This only further increases with intersection with   
   urban centers, such as Victoria, Houston and Beaumont.=20=20   
      
   Gallina   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=   
   DZ3fjg!6eBqZJFeXYwfdfjOanroH9GQeQtbydrQfNUR442JL4eOoRDBCnP5-W_eKdR2izXE3AJE=   
   Wxq3reM5uV59a3QArZIE_ho$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...HGX...LCH...   
      
   ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...   
      
   LAT...LON   30999472 30719393 30099362 29749380 29519420=20   
               29359466 28499607 27779725 27969777 28499795=20   
               29529752 29879714 30199681 30729602=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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