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   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
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   ACUS01 KWNS 300046   
   SWODY1   
   SPC AC 300045   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0645 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025   
      
   Valid 300100Z - 301200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS   
   OF EAST AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible across portions of   
   east and southeast Texas into western Louisiana tonight.   
      
   ...Southeast TX and western LA...   
   Water vapor imagery shows an upper trough over the Plains lifting   
   into the Midwest and western Great Lakes this evening. Ascent   
   attendant to the trough was passing over parts of southeast TX and   
   western LA. A surface low over KS will continue to deepen as it   
   lifts northward into the Midwest this evening. Southerly low-level   
   flow along the TX coast will continue transporting a partially   
   modified Gulf air mass northward ahead of a strong cold front   
   trailing the low. This front will surge south, gradually shrinking   
   the already confined warm sector over the southeastern TX Coastal   
   Plain tonight.   
      
   Within the shrinking warm sector, scattered showers and a few weak   
   thunderstorms may slowly intensify with continued low-level warm   
   advection over east/southeast TX and far western LA. Around 1000   
   J/kg of MLCAPE will support occasional stronger updrafts despite   
   only modest mid-level lapse rates and nebulous ascent. Veering   
   low-level hodographs could support weak updraft rotation with the   
   strongest cells. A brief tornado, marginal hail and occasional   
   strong gusts are possible, especially near a diffuse warm front   
   across east TX and far western LA. These storms will persist tonight   
   and eventually merge with the cold front moving south.   
      
   Isolated thunderstorms along the front over north TX should continue   
   to increase in coverage as the front surges south into more robust   
   surface moisture. Current guidance shows these storms eventually   
   merging with the warm sector convection and moving offshore between   
   10-12z Sunday. While surface temperatures should gradually cool this   
   evening, sufficient moisture and weak buoyancy will maintain a risk   
   for damaging gusts and perhaps some hail with the stronger cores.   
   This appears most likely near the coast where the front will be less   
   likely to undercut ongoing convection. The severe risk will quickly   
   decrease into early Sunday as the front and remaining warm sector   
   are pushed offshore.   
      
   ..Lyons.. 11/30/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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