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   TXZ000-300351-   
      
   Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1254   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   452 PM EST Sat Nov 29 2025   
      
   Areas affected...Southeast Texas   
      
   Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible   
      
   Valid 292151Z - 300351Z   
      
   Summary...Thunderstorms near Houston TX are expected to grow   
   upscale and potentially backbuild/train with time.  Hourly amounts   
   to 2.5" with local totals to 5" could lead to widely scattered   
   instances of flash flooding.   
      
   Discussion...Satellite and radar imagery indicate the formation of   
   showers and thunderstorms near and east of a baroclinic zone   
   oriented northwest-southeast across Southeast TX within a region   
   of 850 hPa confluence near I-10.  ML/MU CAPE to the west and   
   southwest is 1000-2000 J/kg.  Effective bulk shear is near 40 kts,   
   which has led to right movers near IAH itself.  The atmosphere is   
   saturated, considering precipitable water values (1.25-1.5" per   
   GPS data) within a region of 5630 meter 1000-500 hPa thickness   
   values.  Hourly rain amounts of are up to 0.5-1" in the past hour   
   near Stagecoach TX, as of the time of this discussion's writing.   
      
   The 18z HREF moreso than the 12z REFS indicates the continued   
   building of thunderstorms in this area, with some further increase   
   in convective coverage, which may show backbuilding, training   
   character with time.  Instability could erode/retreat westward   
   with time depending upon the degree of convective coverage,   
   essentially stalling the front west of Houston.  Cell mergers are   
   also possible as less organized convection moves more northeast   
   while more organized convection moves more to the east.  Given the   
   parameters, hourly amounts to 2.5" with local amounts to 5" are   
   possible over the next several hours, with the magnitude most in   
   line with the 12z ARW and 20z HRRR guidance.  There is a chance   
   late in the MPD period of convection trying to form across   
   northeast TX presently near and ahead of an advancing cold front   
   approaching the southeast TX convective area, which could lead to   
   more cell mergers at or beyond 04z.  Since the 12z ARW and 18z   
   HREF are closer to the convective evolution thus far, used their   
   guidance for the defined MPD area.  Widely scattered instances of   
   flash flooding are considered possible, particularly in the   
   Houston metropolitan area.   
      
   Roth   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=   
   DZ3fjg!-Vhatwq8jLS3mZorPAMnYdTnKTx4EfsxLABG-GVOUpKylJtFpPdI52knRINntAjzbM-p=   
   HzQOyXL5ZWPQujCk3_4mvYw$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...EWX...HGX...   
      
   ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...   
      
   LAT...LON   30579626 30439491 29959459 29489490 29339650=20   
               29869717=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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