TZUTC: 0000   
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   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
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   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS11 KWNS 292118   
   SWOMCD   
   SPC MCD 292117=20   
   TXZ000-292315-   
      
   Mesoscale Discussion 2241   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0317 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025   
      
   Areas affected...Central Texas to the Texas Coastal Plain   
      
   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20   
      
   Valid 292117Z - 292315Z   
      
   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent   
      
   SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is underway across north-central   
   TX and across parts of the TX Coastal Plain. Thunderstorms are   
   expected to generally remain sub-severe, but a few strong/severe   
   storms are possible.   
      
   DISCUSSION...The early stages of thunderstorm development are   
   underway near the DFW metro area where a cold front is impinging on   
   northward returning moisture. Modest moisture advection will likely   
   continue immediately ahead of the front across portions of central   
   and northeastern TX for the next several hours, supporting around   
   500 J/kg MLCAPE and the potential for additional thunderstorms.   
   Despite strong mid-level flow over the region, recent ACARS   
   soundings and RAP/HRRR forecast soundings show very modest/narrow   
   buoyancy profiles on the northern fringe of the returning moisture.   
   This, along with the undercutting nature of the front, should hinder   
   overall updraft intensities. Nonetheless, damaging winds, and   
   perhaps instances of severe hail, appear possible as storms spread   
   east/southeast given a favorable kinematic environment.   
      
   Further south, shallow convective showers have been percolating over   
   the past 1-2 hours along and north of the I-10 corridor   
   west/northwest of the Houston metro within a low-level confluence   
   zone/residual gravity wave. Cumulus has gradually become more   
   cellular within this zone and at least one attempt at deep   
   convection is noted as temperatures warm into the upper 70s and low   
   80s - a few degrees warmer than anticipated by recent guidance.   
   High-res models continue to show considerable spread/uncertainty on   
   thunderstorm coverage within this zone in the 21-00 UTC time frame,   
   but the warm temperatures and persistent, albeit weak, mesoscale   
   lift suggest that at least a few additional attempts at deep   
   convection should be anticipated prior to 00z and the arrival of the   
   cold front later tonight. If deep convection can mature, better   
   buoyancy (1000 J/kg MLCAPE) and slightly better low-level helicity   
   near the surface warm front may support a relatively higher chance   
   for strong/severe thunderstorms, including the potential for a brief   
   tornado, though confidence in this potential is low.   
      
   Given the modest environment across northern/central TX and   
   uncertainty pertaining to thunderstorm coverage along the Coastal   
   Plain, watch issuance is not expected.   
      
   ..Moore/Gleason.. 11/29/2025   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=   
   g!8iSZdYONNe2pyaGeUUNGuWZpxVNDV6HOc6wGsz9dR0GXDjAFPYkx9oduPb4-cD4LalOCVFOlw=   
   1Mz5WjZJbXUn53Qfao$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...   
      
   LAT...LON   29769492 29539539 29449608 29499674 29659725 29839771   
               30399801 31779815 32259799 32509782 32759750 32909719   
               32959678 32899635 32739612 30839448 30469431 30209439   
               29999457 29769492=20   
      
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH   
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH   
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN   
      
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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