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   ACUS01 KWNS 291950   
   SWODY1   
   SPC AC 291949   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0149 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025   
      
   Valid 292000Z - 301200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS   
   OF EASTERN TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of east   
   and southeast Texas into western Louisiana through tonight.   
      
   ...20z Update...   
   The previous forecast largely remains on track with only minor   
   adjustments required - mainly removal of thunder probabilities   
   across portions of OK/KS/MO where the mid-level vorticity maximum   
   and surface cold front have already passed through. Across   
   east/southeast TX, modest low-level moisture advection continues   
   northward with temperatures warming into the upper 70s and low 80s   
   for a few locations - a few degrees warmer than anticipated by   
   high-res guidance. This additional heating combined with persistent,   
   but shallow, convective showers across southeast TX lend confidence   
   that at least a few attempts at deeper convection are likely by peak   
   heating in the coming hours. Any appreciable tornado threat will   
   likely be limited to near/along a diffuse warm frontal zone draped   
   roughly from the Houston to Waco, TX area where low-level winds   
   remain south/southeasterly. Further north near the DFW metro,   
   deepening cumulus is noted in visible imagery where the surface cold   
   front is impinging on the northern extent of appreciable MLCAPE.   
   Thunderstorm development along the front appears likely in the   
   coming hours, but the modest buoyancy profiles should modulate   
   convective intensity. See the previous discussion for additional   
   details.   
      
   ..Moore.. 11/29/2025   
      
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025/   
      
   ...Central/East/Southeast Texas into Western Louisiana...   
   A mid-level shortwave trough over the Plains this morning will   
   continue to progress quickly east-northeastward today across the mid   
   MS Valley/Midwest and OH Valley. A related surface low over eastern   
   KS will likewise develop northeastward towards IL by this evening,   
   with an attendant cold front sweeping south-southeastward across   
   OK/TX and the ArkLaTex through tonight. Low-level warm/moist   
   advection will continue to aid the northward transport of a   
   partially modified Gulf airmass over portions of central/east TX and   
   perhaps western LA. Thunderstorms should eventually develop by late   
   afternoon/early evening along the front across north-central TX and   
   vicinity, even though large-scale ascent will remain nebulous behind   
   the departing mid-level shortwave trough.   
      
   Filtered daytime heating will result in modest destabilization   
   across the warm sector today, although mid-level lapse rates are not   
   expected to remain modest. Sufficient deep-layer shear associated   
   with a subtropical/southern branch of a mid/upper-level jet should   
   support some updraft organization. Hail and strong/gusty winds may   
   occur with the stronger cores that can develop and be sustained.   
   But, the surging cold front will likely undercut convection fairly   
   quickly. There also appears to be some chance for isolated   
   thunderstorms to develop ahead of the front from parts of central   
   into southeast TX late this afternoon. The large-scale forcing for   
   ascent with southward extent will remain weak/nebulous at best, but   
   low-level confluence may aid in convective initiation across this   
   area. If these thunderstorms can develop, they would have access to   
   greater instability and sufficient low-level shear to pose some   
   threat for a tornado or two. However, the overall environment still   
   supports maintaining a Marginal Risk given the departing shortwave   
   trough and related large-scale forcing, modest lapse rates aloft,   
   and tendency for the low-level flow to gradually weaken/veer with   
   time through this evening and tonight.   
      
   $$   
      
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