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   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0637 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025   
      
   Valid 291300Z - 301200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF   
   CENTRAL/EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of east   
   and southeast Texas into western Louisiana today and tonight.   
      
   ...Synopsis...   
   Early-morning satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough moving into   
   the central Plains, with another shortwave in its wake over central   
   WY. The lead shortwave is forecast to continue quickly eastward,   
   reaching MO by this afternoon before then pivoting more   
   northeastward from the Mid MS Valley into Lower MI. This progression   
   will be accompanied by a strengthening of the mid-level flow as it   
   spreads from the central Plains into the OH and TN Valleys.   
      
   A surface low, recently analyzed over central KS, will accompany the   
   lead shortwave as well, moving rapidly northeastward across MO and   
   IL before ending the period over Lower MI. A cold front attendant to   
   this low will sweep eastward across the Ozarks and southeastward   
   across the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley. A large area of   
   elevated thunderstorms is expected from the Arklatex into the Mid MS   
   Valley, supported by strong southwesterly low-level flow and   
   associated warm-air advection ahead of the front. More intense and   
   potentially severe storms are anticipated along and ahead of the   
   front across central/east TX and western LA.   
      
   ...Central/East TX...Western LA...   
   Recent surface analysis placed mid 50s dewpoints as far north as the   
   TX Big Country, with 60s dewpoints farther south in the TX Hill   
   Country. Low-level moisture advection is forecast to continue   
   throughout the day, with mid 50s dewpoints reaching the Red River   
   and low 60s dewpoints likely reaching the Metroplex vicinity ahead   
   of the cold front. Primary thunderstorm activity is anticipated   
   along the front as it interacts with the modestly moist and buoyant   
   airmass ahead of it. Moderate mid-level flow is expected, but the   
   fast-moving front will still likely lead to a prevalence of undercut   
   updrafts. Even so, sufficient deep-layer shear (35-45 kt) could   
   support a few stronger clusters as a broken line develops and surges   
   south. Isolated hail, and perhaps some damaging gusts are possible   
   as the front moves quickly toward the coast and reaches the Gulf   
   early Sunday morning.   
      
   There is a low-probability chance that thunderstorms develop from   
   the TX Hill Country into the Brazos Valley during the afternoon,   
   supported by low-level confluence within a diurnally destabilized   
   airmass. If any of these updrafts are able to mature, there is   
   enough low-level curvature to support transient supercell structures   
   along with occasionally organized multicells. A brief tornado and   
   marginally severe hail are possible with any stronger,   
   longer-duration updrafts.   
      
   ..Mosier/Dean.. 11/29/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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