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   ACUS01 KWNS 290549   
   SWODY1   
   SPC AC 290548   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1148 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025   
      
   Valid 291200Z - 301200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF   
   EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of east   
   and southeast Texas into western Louisiana today and tonight.   
      
   ...Synopsis...   
   A broad upper trough and increasingly strong westerly flow over the   
   central US are forecast to quickly intensify today, moving into the   
   Ohio Valley by tonight. Accompanying the strengthening trough, a   
   surface low over OK will deepen and shift toward the mid MS valley.   
   Trailing the low, a strong cold front will sweep southeastward with   
   increasing moisture ahead of it over the far southern Plains. Ahead   
   of the front, isolated strong to severe storms are possible over   
   parts of East TX and western LA this afternoon into early Sunday   
   morning.   
      
   ...Eastern Texas into western LA...   
   South of the surface low across parts of central and southeast TX,   
   low-level warm air advection is expected much of the day associated   
   with a weakening 850 mb low-level jet. Persistent southerly flow   
   will help transport low to mid 60s F dewpoints northward across the   
   TX coastal plain into portions of central TX and far western LA.   
   Filtered diurnal heating should allow for some warming of the   
   relatively cool boundary layer. This warming, along with the   
   increase in low-level moisture, should support at least weak   
   destabilization by peak heating as cold mid-level temperatures from   
   the approaching trough move overhead. While overall forcing and flow   
   aloft should be modest south of the primary upper trough, isolated   
   thunderstorms are possible within the warm advection regime through   
   the afternoon and into the evening/overnight hours.   
      
   Veering hodographs and a subtle increase in deep-layer shear should   
   favor some storm organization with convection across southeast TX   
   into far western LA. Wind fields will be weak, but slightly enlarged   
   low-level hodographs (ESRH 100-200 m2/s2) and a cellular storm mode   
   could favor transient supercell structures along with occasionally   
   organized multicells. A brief tornado and marginally severe hail are   
   possible with the stronger updrafts. While any sustained severe risk   
   is likely to be contingent upon sufficient warming for surface-base   
   buoyancy, at least a low-end risk is possible from late afternoon   
   through much of the overnight hours ahead of the cold front.   
      
   As the cold front moves south from the Red River into central TX   
   this afternoon and into the evening, additional storms are likely to   
   form along and behind it as the front encounters the northern   
   fringes of the moisture plume. Despite sufficient buoyancy (MLCAPE   
   500-1000 J/kg), the undercutting nature of the surging front should   
   tend to limit storm intensity. Still, sufficient deep-layer shear   
   (35-45 kt) could support a few stronger clusters as a broken line   
   develops and surges south. Isolated hail, and perhaps some strong   
   gusts are possible as the front is expected to quickly move toward   
   the coast and reach the Gulf early Sunday morning.   
      
   ..Lyons/Weinman.. 11/29/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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