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   FOUS30 KWBC 281858   
   QPFERD   
      
   Excessive Rainfall Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   158 PM EST Fri Nov 28 2025   
      
   Day 1   
   Valid 16Z Fri Nov 28 2025 - 12Z Sat Nov 29 2025   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   Cook/Wegman   
      
   Day 2   
   Valid 12Z Sat Nov 29 2025 - 12Z Sun Nov 30 2025   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF   
   SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...   
      
   An uptick in convective coverage and intensity is expected Saturday   
   night as low level convergence increases across Southeast TX with=20   
   instability around 1000 j/kg. The cold front moving through will be   
   progressive, likely limiting the duration of this event. However=20   
   the 12z high res models indicate a likelihood that we see some=20   
   convective development ahead of the front around 00z, with frontal=20   
   convection then merging with this activity overnight. This=20   
   evolution would allow for some brief training resulting in locally=20   
   higher rainfall amounts. While some placement differences exist,=20   
   both the 12z HREF and 06z REFS show neighborhood probabilities of=20   
   exceeding 3" in the 30-60% range, and the HREF does show some 3hr=20   
   FFG exceedance. Thus a localized flash flood risk remains, mainly=20   
   focused across any more susceptible urban areas that see higher=20   
   rainfall rates.   
      
   Chenard   
      
   Day 3   
   Valid 12Z Sun Nov 30 2025 - 12Z Mon Dec 01 2025   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   Chenard   
      
      
   Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_g7DP9E5-JoQS_4Y-N6tDAoTbFA7oB_tmYK8Z0rES_5j=   
   4cvaSeaTeDxFIMDzvdDlKssZTtV0o25qB61Xn6Qko9WNee4$=20   
   Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_g7DP9E5-JoQS_4Y-N6tDAoTbFA7oB_tmYK8Z0rES_5j=   
   4cvaSeaTeDxFIMDzvdDlKssZTtV0o25qB61Xn6Qk79EOX3U$=20   
   Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_g7DP9E5-JoQS_4Y-N6tDAoTbFA7oB_tmYK8Z0rES_5j=   
   4cvaSeaTeDxFIMDzvdDlKssZTtV0o25qB61Xn6QkuOhDPnU$=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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