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   Day 2 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1128 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025   
      
   Valid 291200Z - 301200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF   
   EASTERN TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of   
   southeast Texas into western Louisiana Saturday afternoon and   
   evening.   
      
   ...Synopsis...   
   A shortwave trough will move from the central Plains into the Ohio   
   Valley and upper Great Lakes on Saturday, with a midlevel speed max   
   strengthening as it expands northeastward from KS to NY. East of   
   this system,  upper ridging will occur over the East as a trough   
   moves out of the Maritimes.   
      
   At the surface, low pressure will move from OK/KS into northern IL   
   by 00Z, with a cold front trailing southwest across southern MO,   
   western AR, and northern TX by that time. A large area of high   
   pressure will remain over much of the eastern CONUS, with a surface   
   ridge extending into the northern Gulf for much of the day. As such,   
   low-level moisture return will be limited from the western Gulf into   
   TX, with low to mid 60s F dewpoints spreading northward ahead of the   
   cold front. Southwesterly 850 mb winds to around 50 kt will aid   
   elevated moisture advection across eastern TX/LA, while the stronger   
   surface-based instability stays generally west of the Sabine River.   
      
   ...Eastern TX into western LA...   
   Modest heating is forecast over central TX ahead of the cold front   
   during the afternoon, though much of eastern TX into LA will remain   
   cool at the surface. Coincident with peak heating, thunderstorms are   
   likely to develop as the cold front intercepts the moist plume over   
   northern TX around 21Z. While profiles aloft will be cool, lapse   
   rates will not be particularly steep. With MLCAPE perhaps up to 1000   
   J/kg within the theta-e plume, and effective shear of 30-40 kt,   
   marginal hail cannot be ruled out. Locally strong gusts may also   
   accompany the storms as the cold front surges south.   
      
   Farther south, additional activity may develop ahead of the cold   
   front over southeast TX as moisture increases. Low-level wind fields   
   will be weak overall, but veering with height. As such, a weak/brief   
   tornado cannot be ruled out. Otherwise, a line of storms will push   
   south along with the surging cold front, with marginal hail or   
   locally gusty winds. Severe risk into LA is less certain, as the   
   surface air mass remains cool with elevated instability. SBCAPE may   
   develop into southwest LA late in the period, supporting low severe   
   probabilities.   
      
   ..Jewell.. 11/28/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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