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   QPFERD   
      
   Excessive Rainfall Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   1005 AM EST Fri Nov 28 2025   
      
   Day 1   
   Valid 16Z Fri Nov 28 2025 - 12Z Sat Nov 29 2025   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   Cook/Wegman   
      
   Day 2   
   Valid 12Z Sat Nov 29 2025 - 12Z Sun Nov 30 2025   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF   
   SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...   
      
   No changes were made to the Marginal Risk area from inherited.   
   While peak MUCAPE values Sunday afternoon reach up to around 700   
   J/kg, that level of instability will be relatively rare. The   
   trailing cold front behind a developing low over the Plains will   
   gradually settle along the upper Texas Coast into Louisiana. Gulf   
   moisture will be drawn northeastward along the advancing front,   
   resulting in rain and potentially training thunderstorms. The   
   storms will be moving over a portion of Texas and Louisiana that   
   has been very dry lately. The soils in this portion of eastern   
   Texas through central Louisiana should absorb much of the rainfall   
   expected. Given the potential for repeating/training storms across   
   the area, the Marginal Risk remains in place, though any flash   
   flooding would require multiple rounds of storms to move through.   
   The combination of dry soils and marginal instability will hold the   
   peak storm strength below anything capable of any more than   
   isolated flash flooding. This appears to be a lower end Marginal   
   risk given those limiting factors.   
      
   Wegman   
      
   Day 3   
   Valid 12Z Sun Nov 30 2025 - 12Z Mon Dec 01 2025   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   Wegman   
      
      
   Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7U_AdocXYeCeC14XMxuOdJqOADhb1cAqzTDweAwLr458=   
   nCDheuABLQ3Wn59ZXgm92wShupCmBzVJ2aj_GtMKIMlRolQ$=20   
   Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7U_AdocXYeCeC14XMxuOdJqOADhb1cAqzTDweAwLr458=   
   nCDheuABLQ3Wn59ZXgm92wShupCmBzVJ2aj_GtMKOyeB3o8$=20   
   Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7U_AdocXYeCeC14XMxuOdJqOADhb1cAqzTDweAwLr458=   
   nCDheuABLQ3Wn59ZXgm92wShupCmBzVJ2aj_GtMKAZ4bCKg$=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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