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   QPFERD   
      
   Excessive Rainfall Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   303 AM EST Fri Nov 28 2025   
      
   Day 1   
   Valid 12Z Fri Nov 28 2025 - 12Z Sat Nov 29 2025   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   Wegman   
      
   Day 2   
   Valid 12Z Sat Nov 29 2025 - 12Z Sun Nov 30 2025   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF   
   SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...   
      
   No changes were made to the Marginal Risk area from inherited.=20   
   While peak MUCAPE values Sunday afternoon reach up to around 700=20   
   J/kg, that level of instability will be relatively rare. The=20   
   trailing cold front behind a developing low over the Plains will=20   
   gradually settle along the upper Texas Coast into Louisiana. Gulf=20   
   moisture will be drawn northeastward along the advancing front,=20   
   resulting in rain and potentially training thunderstorms. The=20   
   storms will be moving over a portion of Texas and Louisiana that=20   
   has been very dry lately. The soils in this portion of eastern=20   
   Texas through central Louisiana should absorb much of the rainfall   
   expected. Given the potential for repeating/training storms across   
   the area, the Marginal Risk remains in place, though any flash=20   
   flooding would require multiple rounds of storms to move through.=20   
   The combination of dry soils and marginal instability will hold the   
   peak storm strength below anything capable of any more than=20   
   isolated flash flooding. This appears to be a lower end Marginal=20   
   risk given those limiting factors.=20   
      
   Wegman   
      
   Day 3   
   Valid 12Z Sun Nov 30 2025 - 12Z Mon Dec 01 2025   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   Wegman   
      
      
   Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5a8NpbSHa0it0CqqiLwnNJ5qeaBX5Za9FxqrK8xe_8sV=   
   S4D2Kt02JQrh6-NI-v8azZW_3k_SCmlVKA2cZkGsxBlYCMk$=20   
   Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5a8NpbSHa0it0CqqiLwnNJ5qeaBX5Za9FxqrK8xe_8sV=   
   S4D2Kt02JQrh6-NI-v8azZW_3k_SCmlVKA2cZkGsT05CbTI$=20   
   Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5a8NpbSHa0it0CqqiLwnNJ5qeaBX5Za9FxqrK8xe_8sV=   
   S4D2Kt02JQrh6-NI-v8azZW_3k_SCmlVKA2cZkGsFZVE4ZQ$=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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