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   ACUS02 KWNS 280656   
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   SPC AC 280655   
      
   Day 2 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1255 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025   
      
   Valid 291200Z - 301200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF   
   EASTERN TX INTO THE ARKLATEX AND SABINE RIVER VALLEY...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of   
   southeast Texas into western and central Louisiana tomorrow   
   (Saturday) afternoon or evening.   
      
   ...Synopsis...   
   A mid-level trough will traverse the central Plains and Middle MS   
   Valley tomorrow (Saturday), resulting in the rapid northeastward   
   progression of a surface low, with a cold front poised to surge   
   southward across the southern Plains toward the Arklatex. Seasonal   
   moisture will advect northward in advance of the surface low across   
   much of central and eastern TX to the Sabine River Valley, promoting   
   enough buoyancy, amid strong deep-layer ascent, for thunderstorm   
   development. Given the expected presence of a strong southerly   
   low-level jet and accompanying vertical wind shear, isolated strong   
   to severe thunderstorms are possible.   
      
   ...Eastern TX to the Arklatex and Sabine River Valley...   
   Widespread showers and thunderstorms should be ongoing at the start   
   of the period (12Z Saturday) due to an ongoing warm-air advection   
   regime, driven by a 40-50 kt southwesterly low-level jet. While   
   low-level cloud cover should persist for much of the day across   
   eastern TX into the Sabine River Valley, pockets of occasional   
   heating will help boost surface temperatures into the upper 60s F.   
   Should this occur, mid 60s F surface dewpoints beneath 7+ C/km   
   mid-level lapse rates, may yield MLCAPE approaching 1000 J/kg in   
   spots. The latest guidance consensus depicts two general focal   
   points for thunderstorm initiation. One is along the approaching   
   cold front in northeast TX into southwestern AR and far northwestern   
   LA by early afternoon, where linear convection may develop and   
   support severe gusts. Ahead of the cold front, low-level confluence   
   bands, over the TX coastal plain, within the primary moisture axis   
   of the warm-air advection regime, may also support thunderstorm   
   initiation. Despite the departing nature of the low-level jet,   
   appreciable south-southwesterly 850 mb flow (30+ kts), beneath 50+   
   kt west-northwesterlies glancing the Arklatex, will support   
   elongated hodographs and up to 40 kts of effective bulk shear.   
   Transient supercells may develop in these confluence bands by   
   afternoon into the evening hours, capable of an instance or two of   
   severe wind/hail, and perhaps even a tornado.   
      
   ..Squitieri.. 11/28/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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