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   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1100 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025   
      
   Valid 281200Z - 291200Z   
      
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Weak thunderstorm activity may begin to develop across parts of   
   western Texas by this afternoon, before increasing within an   
   expanding area of precipitation across parts of the central and   
   southern Great Plains toward lower Missouri and Mississippi Valleys   
   tonight.   
      
   ...Discussion...   
   Downstream of amplifying flow, including building mid/upper ridging   
   across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific, it appears that at least a   
   couple of short wave perturbations may consolidate into larger-scale   
   digging troughing across and east of the Canadian and northern U.S.   
   Rockies later today through tonight.  There is notable spread still   
   evident within/among the model output concerning this evolution, but   
   models generally indicate that this will be accompanied by modest   
   surface cyclogenesis across parts of eastern Colorado into the   
   adjacent central Great Plains by 12Z Saturday.   
      
   This is close on the heels of a cool/dry intrusion still ongoing   
   across the central into southwestern Gulf Basin, in the wake of   
   amplified mid/upper troughing approaching the Atlantic Seaboard.   
   However, the most significant short wave perturbation still digging   
   within this regime is forecast to rapidly accelerate into the   
   northwestern Atlantic today through tonight, and trailing surface   
   ridging likely will begin shifting east of the southern Great   
   Plains/lower Mississippi Valley.  Models suggest that this will   
   occur in a manner allowing for a strengthening southerly return flow   
   from the Texas South Plains/lower Rio Grande Valley toward the lower   
   Missouri Valley by late tonight.   
      
   This may be accompanied by rapid north-northeastward advection of   
   moisture now present across/east of the Mexican Plateau, and include   
   near-surface dew points increasing through the mid 50s to lower 60s   
   F across Deep South Texas into portions of western North Texas by   
   the end of the period.  However, to the north of Deep South Texas,   
   where relatively warm mid-level temperatures probably will inhibit   
   thunderstorm development, the moisture return is generally forecast   
   above a residual cool/stable near-surface layer, which will remain   
   deeper with northward/eastward extent into the central Great Plains   
   and lower/middle Mississippi Valley.   
      
   Still, forecast soundings indicate that this moistening, near the   
   base of a layer of steepening lapse rates aided by   
   lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, will provide support for   
   convective development capable of producing lightning.  It appears   
   that this could initiate across the Permian Basin vicinity by this   
   afternoon, if not perhaps earlier, before forcing for ascent   
   supports increasingly widespread convection and embedded weak   
   thunderstorm activity across parts of the southern into central   
   Great Plains and lower Missouri Valley tonight.   
      
   ..Kerr/Weinman.. 11/28/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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