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   FOUS30 KWBC 280011   
   QPFERD   
      
   Excessive Rainfall Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   711 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2025   
      
   Day 1   
   Valid 01Z Fri Nov 28 2025 - 12Z Fri Nov 28 2025   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   Bann   
      
   Day 2   
   Valid 12Z Fri Nov 28 2025 - 12Z Sat Nov 29 2025   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   Chenard   
      
   Day 3   
   Valid 12Z Sat Nov 29 2025 - 12Z Sun Nov 30 2025   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF   
   SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA...   
      
   We were able to trim back the northern and eastern extent of the   
   Marginal risk with this update. Showers and embedded thunderstorms   
   will be ongoing Saturday across the region, but the   
   intensity/coverage is generally not expected to result in a flash   
   flood risk. However we should see an uptick in both convective   
   coverage and intensity between 00z-06z Sunday as low level   
   convergence increases across southeast TX. While this activity   
   still should be rather progressive, some brief training is   
   possible, which could locally push rainfall amounts up over 2-3"   
   and result in a localized flash flood risk. The 12z RRFS indicates   
   this potential, producing localized swaths over 3" Saturday night.   
   While the RRFS appears slower with the front than the model   
   consensus, and thus too far west with its QPF max...the idea of   
   some brief training resulting in locally higher rainfall still   
   holds. Thus we will continue to carry a Marginal risk, but keep it   
   confined to southeast TX into southwest LA where the potential for   
   higher rainfall rates is greatest.   
      
   Chenard   
      
   Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!57Q_FVEK7bVIRO_L_NuDPC-meEjKkEXJH9uBHHuey91d=   
   vWz0rAUYBw3IXq741xavTzS3699QGSpFO6iv65hR5zyrJOo$=20   
   Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!57Q_FVEK7bVIRO_L_NuDPC-meEjKkEXJH9uBHHuey91d=   
   vWz0rAUYBw3IXq741xavTzS3699QGSpFO6iv65hRgLy7q_Y$=20   
   Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!57Q_FVEK7bVIRO_L_NuDPC-meEjKkEXJH9uBHHuey91d=   
   vWz0rAUYBw3IXq741xavTzS3699QGSpFO6iv65hRWZVlPRU$=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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