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   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
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   ACUS03 KWNS 271931   
   SWODY3   
   SPC AC 271930   
      
   Day 3 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0130 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025   
      
   Valid 291200Z - 301200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF   
   EASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of   
   southeast Texas into western Louisiana Saturday afternoon or   
   evening.   
      
   ...Synopsis...   
   The shortwave trough over the central Plains will move eastward as   
   mid-level westerly flow intensifies from the Plains to the MS Valley   
   and Midwest Saturday/Sunday. A surface low attendant to the trough   
   will move from OK/KS to the southern Great Lakes as a strong cold   
   front moves south from the Red River to the lower MS Valley.   
   Moisture return ahead of the front will support scattered   
   thunderstorms across eastern TX, the Sabine Valley and lower MS   
   valley through early morning Sunday.   
      
   ...Southeast TX to western LA...   
   With southerly surface flow expected to develop ahead of the   
   deepening surface cyclone over the Plains Saturday, low-level   
   moisture advection should increase across coastal and southeast TX   
   into LA. A warm front will slowly lift northward, stalling over   
   southwest LA as it encounters a deep and cool air mass farther   
   north. Continued low-level warm air advection (despite ongoing   
   showers and remnant clouds) should allow for gradual destabilization   
   Saturday afternoon. While overall forcing for ascent appears weak as   
   the upper trough departs to the north, scattered thunderstorm   
   development appears probable, both within the low-level warm   
   advection regime and along the approaching cold front from the   
   Northwest. Given expected mid to upper 60s F dewpoints beneath 7-8   
   C/km mid-level lapse rates, around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE could support a   
   few stronger updrafts late Saturday through Sunday morning. Residual   
   westerly flow aloft may also favor some storm organization with   
   multicell lines or clusters and perhaps transient supercells capable   
   of damaging gusts and hail. This is most likely from the TX coastal   
   Plain to southwestern LA before the cold front moves offshore into   
   the Gulf.   
      
   ..Lyons.. 11/27/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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