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   QPFERD   
      
   Excessive Rainfall Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   230 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2025   
      
   Day 1   
   Valid 16Z Thu Nov 27 2025 - 12Z Fri Nov 28 2025   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   An instance of urban flash flooding cannot be ruled out across   
   portions of southeastern Florida this afternoon. An approaching   
   cold front will trigger a few outflow-driven thunderstorms that may   
   exhibit relatively slow storm motions due to weak wind fields below   
   500mb. 1.6 inch PW values and 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE in the pre-frontal   
   airmass both support robust updrafts with locally heavy rainfall.   
   A conditional threat will exist for spotty 1 inch/hr rain rates to   
   impact urban areas between Miami and West Palm Beach. The isolated   
   and conditional nature of this threat precludes any introduction of   
   probabilities/risk areas for this outlook.   
      
   Cook   
      
   Day 2   
   Valid 12Z Fri Nov 28 2025 - 12Z Sat Nov 29 2025   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   Chenard   
      
   Day 3   
   Valid 12Z Sat Nov 29 2025 - 12Z Sun Nov 30 2025   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF   
   SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA...   
      
   We were able to trim back the northern and eastern extent of the=20   
   Marginal risk with this update. Showers and embedded thunderstorms=20   
   will be ongoing Saturday across the region, but the=20   
   intensity/coverage is generally not expected to result in a flash=20   
   flood risk. However we should see an uptick in both convective=20   
   coverage and intensity between 00z-06z Sunday as low level=20   
   convergence increases across southeast TX. While this activity=20   
   still should be rather progressive, some brief training is=20   
   possible, which could locally push rainfall amounts up over 2-3"=20   
   and result in a localized flash flood risk. The 12z RRFS indicates=20   
   this potential, producing localized swaths over 3" Saturday night.=20   
   While the RRFS appears slower with the front than the model=20   
   consensus, and thus too far west with its QPF max...the idea of=20   
   some brief training resulting in locally higher rainfall still=20   
   holds. Thus we will continue to carry a Marginal risk, but keep it=20   
   confined to southeast TX into southwest LA where the potential for   
   higher rainfall rates is greatest.   
      
   Chenard   
      
   Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_y9isghxHrxEKisIghRjY6wLIPeDJMnpc6Gi8S0lLu8v=   
   jTGPXp-Z89TeL1rh5qEvOmkF9-4JqSYR6GbLmGduSt0GxeU$=20   
   Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_y9isghxHrxEKisIghRjY6wLIPeDJMnpc6Gi8S0lLu8v=   
   jTGPXp-Z89TeL1rh5qEvOmkF9-4JqSYR6GbLmGduLw3QSbo$=20   
   Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_y9isghxHrxEKisIghRjY6wLIPeDJMnpc6Gi8S0lLu8v=   
   jTGPXp-Z89TeL1rh5qEvOmkF9-4JqSYR6GbLmGdudlEHZIM$=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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