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   Day 2 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1120 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025   
      
   Valid 281200Z - 291200Z   
      
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   A few thunderstorms are possible over the southern Plains and lower   
   Missouri Valley Friday night into early Saturday morning. Severe   
   thunderstorms are not currently expected.   
      
   ...Synopsis...   
   Mid-level ridging over the central US will shift eastward behind a   
   departing trough over the East. A second trough will deepen over the   
   Rockies encouraging lee cyclogenesis over the southern Plains   
   Friday. As the surface low deepens, modest low-level moisture will   
   advect northward with a 40-60 kt southerly low-level jet. Lift from   
   the approaching trough and an attendant cold front will support   
   isolated thunderstorms from the southern Plains to the lower MO   
   Valley late Friday into early Saturday.   
      
   ...Southern Plains into the lower Missouri Valley...   
   Ahead of the lee low, strong low-level warm air advection will   
   transport middling surface moisture northward over parts of   
   central/north TX into southern OK ahead of the surging cold front.   
   In the wake of the prior frontal passage, a persistent surface   
   stable layer is likely to prevent substantial northward moisture   
   return over the southern Plains. However, cold mid-level   
   temperatures (H5 temps -24C) beneath the deepening upper trough will   
   likely support some elevated buoyancy development late Friday,   
   overnight into Saturday. Isolated thunderstorms are possible within   
   the boarder warm advection band. While generally weak, (~250-500   
   J/kg MUCAPE) sufficient destabilization and strong flow aloft could   
   support an occasional stronger storm capable of small hail from   
   northeast TX into eastern OK and the Ozarks. But, given the limited   
   thermodynamics, a sustained severe risk appears unlikely.   
      
   ..Lyons.. 11/27/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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