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   QPFERD   
      
   Excessive Rainfall Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   1056 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2025   
      
   Day 1   
   Valid 16Z Thu Nov 27 2025 - 12Z Fri Nov 28 2025   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   An instance of urban flash flooding cannot be ruled out across   
   portions of southeastern Florida this afternoon. An approaching   
   cold front will trigger a few outflow-driven thunderstorms that may   
   exhibit relatively slow storm motions due to weak wind fields below   
   500mb. 1.6 inch PW values and 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE in the pre-frontal   
   airmass both support robust updrafts with locally heavy rainfall.   
   A conditional threat will exist for spotty 1 inch/hr rain rates to   
   impact urban areas between Miami and West Palm Beach. The isolated   
   and conditional nature of this threat precludes any introduction of   
   probabilities/risk areas for this outlook.   
      
   Cook   
      
   Day 2   
   Valid 12Z Sat Nov 29 2025 - 12Z Sun Nov 30 2025   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   Campbell   
      
      
   Day 3   
   Valid 12Z Sat Nov 29 2025 - 12Z Sun Nov 30 2025   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF   
   THE WESTERN GULF AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...   
      
      
   Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to fire up across   
   Texas and portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley during this   
   period as warm air advects northward ahead of an approaching cold   
   front. Areal averages of 1 to locally 3 inches will be possible,   
   with the best potential for the highest amount to focus near the   
   Gulf Coast. A Marginal Risk area is in effect for eastern Texas,   
   southeast Oklahoma, southern/central Arkansas, western Mississippi   
   and most of Louisiana.   
      
   Campbell   
      
      
   Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!40wOA5TEU4CMkHnmj_kb9LDBN8F5hnqpojVqY5fq79Lx=   
   ZwPu00JonZkGZCiT-6oVK-XZVOloGC1GHTW3n4smwpUKCio$=20   
   Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!40wOA5TEU4CMkHnmj_kb9LDBN8F5hnqpojVqY5fq79Lx=   
   ZwPu00JonZkGZCiT-6oVK-XZVOloGC1GHTW3n4smth6iFoo$=20   
   Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!40wOA5TEU4CMkHnmj_kb9LDBN8F5hnqpojVqY5fq79Lx=   
   ZwPu00JonZkGZCiT-6oVK-XZVOloGC1GHTW3n4smvipIh24$=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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