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   ACUS03 KWNS 270829   
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   SPC AC 270828   
      
   Day 3 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0228 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025   
      
   Valid 291200Z - 301200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS   
   OF THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN TO THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of   
   southeast Texas into northern Louisiana Saturday afternoon or   
   evening.   
      
   ...Synopsis...   
   A surface low will translate northeast from the southern Plains   
   toward the Great lakes as a broad mid-level trough overspreads the   
   central U.S. on Saturday. Relatively rich low-level moisture return   
   will occur across the Sabine River Valley ahead of a surface cold   
   front. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development should occur   
   within a warm-air advection regime. Given strong vertical wind shear   
   in place due to a departing low-level jet, isolated strong to severe   
   storms are possible across the TX Coastal Plain toward the Sabine   
   River Valley ahead of the approaching cold front.   
      
   ...Southeast Texas into northern Louisiana...   
   Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing across the   
   southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley within the warm-air   
   advection regime. Through the day, airmass modification will result   
   in some boundary layer destabilization as cloudiness and   
   precipitation gradually clears the warm sector over southeastern TX.   
   Over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE may materialize if surface temperatures can   
   exceed 70 F given expected mid to upper 60s F dewpoints beneath 7-8   
   C/km mid-level lapse rates. A surface cold front will sweep   
   southeastward toward eastern TX. However, the mid-level trough   
   should pivot northeastward through the day. As such, the surface low   
   and accompanying low-level jet are poised to depart the southern   
   Plains and track away from the axis of greater moisture and   
   instability, which should limit severe potential to some degree.   
      
   Still, low-level convergence along the cold front should support   
   thunderstorm development by afternoon peak heating across the TX   
   coastal plain to the Sabine River Valley. Strong enough flow along   
   the western periphery of the departing low-level jet, beneath modest   
   westerlies, will support elongated hodographs and over 30 kts of   
   effective bulk shear. Given the aforementioned buoyancy, multicells   
   and perhaps a couple of supercells are possible. Isolated severe   
   gusts/hail are possible, and a tornado cannot be ruled out.   
      
   ..Squitieri.. 11/27/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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