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   ACUS01 KWNS 270455   
   SWODY1   
   SPC AC 270454   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1054 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025   
      
   Valid 271200Z - 281200Z   
      
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the   
   U.S. today through tonight.   
      
   ...Discussion...   
   Models indicate that an initially significant, and now occluding,   
   cyclone will gradually weaken across Quebec today through tonight,   
   as a weaker secondary cyclone also occludes across and   
   north-northeast of the Canadian Maritimes.  In mid-levels, it   
   appears that large-scale troughing will be reinforced and undergo   
   amplification while progressing into and across the Atlantic   
   Seaboard, in response to a pair of initially digging short wave   
   perturbations across and east of the Mississippi Valley.  As this   
   occurs, a notable associated surface cold front is forecast to   
   progress away from the Atlantic Seaboard, and through much of the   
   remainder of the Florida Peninsula and Gulf Basin.   
      
   Within split westerlies emanating from the northern and mid-latitude   
   Pacific, a pair of short wave impulses are forecast to dig inland   
   across the Cascades and Canadian Rockies, downstream of building   
   larger-scale mid/upper ridging.  However, it appears that generally   
   stable conditions will be maintained across much of the West, in   
   addition to most areas east of the Rockies.   
      
   ...Florida Peninsula...   
   Downstream of the amplifying large-scale mid-level trough axis,   
   models continue to indicate that one area of developing large-scale   
   forcing for ascent may overcome mid-level inhibition and support a   
   couple of generally weak thunderstorms across the Lower Florida Keys   
   into southeastern Florida coastal vicinities this morning into   
   afternoon.  In the presence of another developing area of   
   large-scale ascent, weak destabilization may also support at least   
   lower threshold probabilities for thunderstorms, ahead of the   
   southward advancing cold front across interior central into east   
   central coastal portions of the peninsula this afternoon.   
      
   ...Lower Great Lakes...   
   Cold air overspreading the relative warm waters of Lakes Erie and   
   Ontario may contribute to thermodynamic profiles increasingly   
   conducive to convection capable of producing occasional lightning,   
   particularly as temperatures cool below -20 to -25 C in the 700-600   
   mb layer this afternoon into tonight, based on forecast soundings.   
      
   ..Kerr.. 11/27/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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