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   Day 3 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0131 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025   
      
   Valid 281200Z - 291200Z   
      
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   A few thunderstorms are possible over the southern Plains Friday   
   night into early Saturday morning. Severe thunderstorms are not   
   currently expected.   
      
   ...Synopsis...   
   Mid-level ridging over the central US is forecast to shift eastward   
   and weaken under the influence of a deepening shortwave trough over   
   the Rockies and High Plains Friday. As the trough to the west   
   deepens, stronger westerly flow will overspread the Plains states   
   deepening a lee cyclone across portions of eastern CO and western   
   KS. A strong cold front, attendant to the surface low, will sweep   
   southeastward, supporting isolated thunderstorms over the southern   
   Plains and Ozarks into early Saturday.   
      
   ...Central TX into southeastern OK...   
   As the surface low over the southern High Plains deepens, southerly   
   winds will increase supporting low-level moisture advection on the   
   western flank of the surface high into portions of TX and southern   
   OK late Friday. With surface temperatures remaining relatively cool   
   in the wake of the prior frontal passage, most forecast soundings   
   show weak buoyancy developing above a surface stable layer at the   
   apex of a 40-50 kt southerly low-level jet. As the upper trough   
   moves overhead and the surface cold front approaches from the   
   northwest, broad ascent will support isolated thunderstorms from   
   central and western North TX into central/eastern OK and the western   
   Ozarks late Friday night into early Saturday morning. While buoyancy   
   is expected to remain fairly limited (~500 J/kg MUCAPE), strong flow   
   aloft could support occasional stronger elevated storms with the   
   potential for small hail. This is most likely farther south across   
   TX where buoyancy would be stronger, though confidence in a   
   sustained severe risk is low.   
      
   ..Lyons.. 11/26/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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