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   Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1253   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   914 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2025   
      
   Areas affected...south Texas   
      
   Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible   
      
   Valid 261410Z - 261710Z   
      
   Summary...Isolated flash flood potential will continue for another   
   2-3 hours across south Texas.   
      
   Discussion...Flash flood potential continues.  Recent   
   satellite/objective analyses depict a weak mid-level shortwave   
   trough moving over south Texas, continuing to initiate and   
   maintain deep moist convection along a synoptic frontal zone over   
   the area (extending from Rio Grande City east to Padre Island and   
   Gulf of American waters).  1.5+ inch PW values and 2000 J/kg   
   SBCAPE continues to support efficient rainfall processes with   
   storms.  Meanwhile, kinematics (with weak flow below 500mb)   
   continue to support slow cell movement and spots of 2-3 inch/hr   
   rain rates.  While there's still an appreciable chance for these   
   rates to materialize along more populated/urbanized areas near the   
   Rio Grande (i.e., Brownsville, Harlingen, etc.) and prompt flash   
   flooding, overall convective trends suggest that eventual   
   low-level stabilization (due to overturning and cooler air   
   filtering into the region from the north) should result in flash   
   flood potential decreasing especially after 16-17Z.   
      
   Cook   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=   
   DZ3fjg!7niCFkluyJDIbuSuPYqL7SSm2hwkFMDS5usNSZMTspejBrOI4OseGZJF2Xlq8tLfJV8H=   
   26GLvedeOdEYdPP1KfKG9Ao$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...BRO...CRP...   
      
   ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...   
      
   LAT...LON   27419817 26809699 25819722 26319917 26819957=20   
               27299962=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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