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   Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1252   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   406 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2025   
      
   Areas affected...South TX   
      
   Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible   
      
   Valid 260905Z - 261400Z   
      
   Summary...A fairly localized flash flood threat will continue over   
   portions of southern TX through sunrise. Slow moving thunderstorms   
   will be capable of hourly rainfall in excess of 2 to 3 inches in   
   an hour with potential for additional totals of 3 to 5+ inches.   
      
   Discussion...Area radar imagery over southern TX at 0840Z showed a   
   slow moving thunderstorm in the vicinity of Hebronville along with   
   the recent (since 07Z) expansion of a broken line of thunderstorms   
   extending west from Rockport. The line of storms to north of   
   Hebronville appears to be elevated just above the surface given   
   increasing northerly winds at the surface and lowering dewpoints   
   just north of these storms, associated with a cold front which   
   extended through the western Gulf into the lower Rio Grande   
   Valley. While ground truth of observed rainfall at the surface has   
   been limited, the ASOS from KHBV showed 0.88 inches of rain in 8   
   minutes ending 0735Z. This is an example of what the environment   
   over south TX can produce, represented by MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg   
   and precipitable water values near 1.5 inches (per 08Z SPC   
   mesoanalysis data).   
      
   The slow moving cold front will begin to move toward the south at   
   a more rapid pace by 12Z and beyond, due to a strong ridge of high   
   pressure to the north building in and a secondary cold front   
   currently moving steadily through central TX. Until then however,   
   the potential for slow moving thunderstorms will continue given a   
   mixture of cell types and cell motions, some of which could be   
   less than 10 kt toward the east. There is also some potential for   
   cells to develop/stall near the coast as a corridor of relatively   
   stronger low level flow near the front (15-20 kt 925-850 mb layer)   
   acts to focus cells along a coastal convergence axis forced by the   
   warmer Gulf waters relative to inland locations.   
      
   While the potential for flash flooding looks to be isolated, the   
   potential for high rain rates and localized totals in excess of   
   3-5 inches will maintain concerns for rapid inundation of water   
   until ~14Z, at which point, the cold front is forecast to be   
   moving through Brownsville.   
      
   Otto   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=   
   DZ3fjg!9MR70JC_4x4-U6ClozgFChiBGGoHQgRXY5C8hXC0VU8raHtYF-yjLC3JdDUp3Flb2bBw=   
   quZZ_nlZZT1G0h3xDIRz-kE$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...BRO...CRP...   
      
   ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...   
      
   LAT...LON   28419728 28369661 27979657 27069704 25679698=20   
               25829839 26089916 26689958 27129972 27759937=20   
               28169865=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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