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   ACUS48 KWNS 260852   
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   SPC AC 260850   
      
   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0250 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025   
      
   Valid 291200Z - 041200Z   
      
   ...DISCUSSION...   
   A progressive upper air pattern is expected through the remainder of   
   this week into the middle of next week, with multiple mid-level   
   troughs poised to develop and amplify while progressing across the   
   CONUS. This pattern will support cooler temperatures across the   
   northern half of the U.S. through the extended period, resulting   
   stable low-level conditions and limited potential for thunderstorm   
   development. However, the passage of multiple mid-level troughs will   
   result in surface low development, accompanied by moisture return   
   and at least some thunderstorm potential across the southern Plains   
   into the Southeast on a few occasions.   
      
   First, a surface low will rapidly translate from the southern Plains   
   to the Great Lakes on Day 4/Saturday, becoming displaced from the   
   moisture axis with time. Before departing the southern Plains, an   
   appreciable fetch of low-level moisture will become established over   
   the Sabine River Valley ahead of a surface cold front. It is   
   plausible that at least a few strong to potentially severe   
   thunderstorms could develop. However, the rapid departure of the   
   surface low will reduce deep-layer ascent, with storm coverage   
   ultimately in question (hence no severe probabilities being   
   introduced at this time).   
      
   Medium range guidance consensus has the next in a series of   
   mid-level troughs amplifying over the southern Plains, which may   
   support surface low development somewhere over the Lower MS Valley   
   early next week. Should this occur, isolated strong to severe storms   
   cannot be ruled out along the Gulf Coast. However, the development,   
   track, or evolution of the surface low is currently unclear in the   
   guidance, warranting the withholding of severe probabilities for   
   now.   
      
   ..Squitieri.. 11/26/2025   
      
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