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   FOUS11 KWBC 260756   
   QPFHSD   
      
   Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   256 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2025   
      
   Valid 12Z Wed Nov 26 2025 - 12Z Sat Nov 29 2025   
      
      
   ...Significant winter storm with localized blizzard conditions=20   
   will continue to impact parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes=20   
   through Wednesday as lake effect snow intensifies into Thanksgiving   
   and Friday for the eastern Great Lakes...   
      
   ...Confidence increasing on a second winter storm to affect the=20   
   Northern Plains Friday and the Midwest/Great Lakes Friday night=20   
   into Sunday...   
      
      
   ...Key Messages for both systems are in effect and linked below...   
      
      
   ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes...=20   
   Days 1-3...   
      
   Deepening area of low pressure over the U.P. of Michigan will=20   
   reach peak intensity today as it moves eastward into Canada.=20   
   Northerly flow on its northwest side will continue to wrap in=20   
   moisture all the way around from the Northeast US with additional=20   
   infusion from Lake Superior. Lake enhanced snow will transition to=20   
   lake effect snow over northern WI and the U.P. of Michigan this=20   
   afternoon/evening and continue through Thursday and into Friday as=20   
   upper troughing will be slow to move out. NW flow across Lake=20   
   Michigan will signal the start of lake effect snow into the Lower=20   
   Peninsula as well, starting overnight. Lastly, after the cold front   
   clears through western NYS today, the lake machine will pick up=20   
   off of Lakes Erie and Ontario and continue through Friday and into=20   
   Saturday morning as additional height falls and PVA flow out of=20   
   Ontario across the Great Lakes. Winds will remain blustery to=20   
   strong at times (especially along lake shores), creating blowing=20   
   and drifting snow. The snow bands off of the eastern lakes will=20   
   start as single bands on SW to WSW flow before transitioning to=20   
   more multi-bands off at least Lake Erie as the flow veers to W then   
   WNW and NW on Friday.=20   
      
   Snow will accumulate rapidly under the more intense lake bands=20   
   that remain over the same area. The most favored locations for this   
   will be over the western to central U.P. of Michigan where the=20   
   multi- banded flow can still be quite intense. WPC probabilities=20   
   for an additional 8 inches of snow after 12Z today are at least 50%   
   over northern WI, most of the U.P. of Michigan (except for areas=20   
   closer to Lake Michigan), northwest Lower Michigan, northeastern=20   
   Ohio, northwestern PA, southwestern NY, and around the Tug Hill=20   
   Plateau. Within these regions, there is a smaller but still=20   
   significant area of probabilities >50% for 18 inches of snow.=20   
   Isolated totals could exceed 30 inches, including what has already=20   
   fallen.=20   
      
   Travel will be difficult and perhaps impossible at times due to=20   
   snow- covered roads, blowing snow, and low visibility.=20   
      
      
   ...Northern Rockies...=20   
   Day 1...   
      
   Pacific system moving through WA/OR this morning will weaken but=20   
   retain its moisture through the northern Rockies. Generally lighter   
   snow is expected with moderate (30-60%) probabilities of at least=20   
   6 inches of snow for parts of the Absarokas and south central MT=20   
   ranges.=20   
      
      
   ...Cascades, Northern Rockies/Plains to the Corn Belt...   
   Days 2-3...   
      
   The next Pacific system will approach the coast late tonight with=20   
   some light WAA-driven snow to the WA Cascades. Bulk of the=20   
   precipitation comes in on Thursday with high snow levels around=20   
   5000ft (north) to 7000ft (south), limiting accumulations to the=20   
   higher mountains. However, the mid-level shortwave will maintain=20   
   its identity as it crosses the Divide and is joined by an incoming=20   
   shortwave out of western Canada Friday. This combined longwave=20   
   trough will then digs through the Rockies as lee-side surface=20   
   cyclogenesis occurs over eastern WY/CO Friday afternoon. High=20   
   pressure following from Canada will help support some lower-level=20   
   upslope-enhanced snow over western MT where snow could be heavy at=20   
   times over the Lewis Range around Glacier NP. WPC probabilities for   
   at least 8 inches of snow are >50% over the northwestern MT=20   
   ranges. Over the valley floors, WPC probabilities for at least 4=20   
   inches of snow are generally >50% east of the Divide and including=20   
   the Absarokas and Bighorns.   
      
   Farther east, north of the developing surface low, sfc-850=20   
   troughing and WAA will enhance snow as well over=20   
   northern/northeastern MT that will eventually stretch=20   
   eastward/southeastward onto the Northern Plains Friday afternoon.=20   
   The addition of Gulf moisture from the south will help the snow=20   
   quickly expand ESE from the Plains to the Corn Belt by Friday=20   
   evening and continue into early Saturday, driven by 850-700 WAA and   
   surface convergence near/north of the warm front. By early=20   
   Saturday, the upper jet will sharpen along 100W and help to=20   
   continue to deepen the surface low over the central Plains. Light=20   
   to moderate snow will continue across the Corn Belt and become=20   
   heavier by the end of this forecast period (to continue into the=20   
   medium range). Through 12Z Saturday, WPC probabilities for at least   
   4 inches of snow are >30% from along the ND/SD border=20   
   southeastward through southwestern MN into Iowa. There (northern=20   
   Iowa), low chances (10-30%) of at least 6 inches of snow are shown=20   
   with more to come.   
      
      
   The probability of significant ice across the CONUS is less than=20   
   10 percent.   
      
   Fracasso   
      
      
   ...Winter Storm Key Messages are in effect. Please see current Key   
   Messages below...   
      
   Ongoing storm:   
      
   https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/Late=   
   stKeyMessage_1.png__;!!DZ3fjg!67bOiLvMYtS1-WWIqNX8W1wwqqjbRDhtwJhwysHg9qQnP=   
   olnpwJlNXfvYYUApTN3uV-YUEATpPITnOvf32225fCX0SA$=20   
      
   Next system:   
      
   https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/Late=   
   stKeyMessage_2.png__;!!DZ3fjg!67bOiLvMYtS1-WWIqNX8W1wwqqjbRDhtwJhwysHg9qQnP=   
   olnpwJlNXfvYYUApTN3uV-YUEATpPITnOvf3222AR5asso$=20   
      
      
      
   $$   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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