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   ACUS03 KWNS 260721   
   SWODY3   
   SPC AC 260720   
      
   Day 3 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0120 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025   
      
   Valid 281200Z - 291200Z   
      
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   A few thunderstorms are possible over the southern Plains Friday   
   night into early Saturday morning. Severe thunderstorms are not   
   currently expected.   
      
   ...Synopsis...   
   A mid-level trough will amplify across the central U.S. as another   
   upper trough ejects into the Atlantic on Day 3 (Friday). As this   
   occurs, surface high pressure and an associated cool, statically   
   stable airmass will overspread the U.S. east of the MS River,   
   limiting thunderstorm potential. However, the approach of the   
   central U.S. trough will encourage surface low development over the   
   southern Plains on Friday, promoting moisture return from the Gulf.   
   With the return of this moisture comes buoyancy (albeit marginal)   
   across portions of the southern Plains. Thunderstorms will be   
   possible Friday night into early Saturday morning across much of   
   central TX into far southwestern OK as cooler temperatures   
   aloft/steep mid-level lapse rates overspreads the moist axis ahead   
   of the surface low.   
      
   ...Central TX into far southwestern OK...   
   The latest guidance consensus depicts a 1008 mb surface low   
   developing somewhere over western OK by Friday evening as a   
   mid-level trough deepens over the central Rockies. Given a frontal   
   intrusion over the Gulf in days prior, moisture return will be scant   
   for Day 3/Friday. Nonetheless, the development of a strong (i.e.   
   40-50 kt) southerly low-level jet will aid in the northward   
   advancement of enough moisture to support scattered thunderstorm   
   development Friday night into early Saturday morning. Forecast   
   soundings depict a stable nocturnal boundary layer over central TX   
   to far southwestern OK, but with 7.5-8.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates   
   overspreading this stable, moist layer, yielding 500-1000 J/kg   
   MUCAPE, generally above 850 mb. Given the strong low-level jet, and   
   an approaching westerly 500 mb wind maximum rotating around the   
   amplifying trough, strong deep-layer shear is expected. Forecast   
   soundings show elongated hodographs, with approximately 50 kts of   
   effective bulk shear noted. Elevated multicells are expected, likely   
   accompanied by at least small hail. However, if trends in increasing   
   buoyancy are noted in future guidance, severe hail probabilities may   
   be needed in future outlooks.   
      
   ..Squitieri.. 11/26/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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