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   AWUS01 KWNH 260417   
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   TXZ000-260920-   
      
   Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1251   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   1117 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2025   
      
   Areas affected...South Texas   
      
   Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible   
      
   Valid 260415Z - 260920Z   
      
   Summary...A localized flash flood risk will exist across portions   
   of southern TX through at least 09Z. Slow moving and/or   
   backbuilding of thunderstorms could result in isolated totals in   
   excess of 3-5 inches, though some uncertainty in placement and   
   timing remain.   
      
   Discussion...04Z radar and infrared satellite imagery showed a   
   lone thunderstorm over southern Webb County, about 15 miles east   
   of the Rio Grande with a slow northward drift. Radar and satellite   
   imagery also showed recent attempts at development over Live Oak   
   County and portions of northern Mexico though low level CIN may be   
   hindering further development. MRMS-derived hourly rainfall was   
   over 2 inches with the cell although the likely presence of large   
   hail may be over-inflating those values and no ground truth was   
   available to confirm actual rain rates. The cell was located near   
   a quasi-stationary front which has drifted north and west over the   
   past couple of hours due to a weak low level easterly surge off of   
   the warm Gulf waters with surface dewpoints in the lower 70s from   
   CRP to BKS and southward to the Rio Grande. Low level convergence   
   and lift augmented by a subtle shortwave impulse tracking east   
   from north-central Mexico as seen in 6.2 micron imagery seem to be   
   triggers for the storm(s).   
      
   00Z soundings from CRP and BRO showed 1.3 to 1.6 inch PW values   
   along with 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE, with this airmass likely in   
   place near the cell over Webb County. The environment was   
   supportive of a mixture of storm modes with sufficient shear for   
   organized cells and straight-line hodographs which could support   
   splitting storms. Bunkers right motion was toward the SSE near 20   
   kt, Bunkers left from the SSW near 15 kt and deeper layer mean   
   winds from the west between 5 and 20 kt.   
      
   While recent hires model guidance shows a decent signal for   
   localized heavy rain in the vicinity of southern TX, there is poor   
   agreement in placement and timing. Current thinking is for the   
   existing cell over Webb County to maintain for at least another   
   1-2 hours with a continued drift toward the north or west with   
   localized heavy rain. The future beyond that time is unclear as   
   better low level confluence shifts westward into Mexico but   
   additional convective development appears possible near the   
   frontal boundary and south TX coast later in the night. Additional   
   potential for high rates in excess of 2 in/hr and spotty totals in   
   excess of 3 to 5 inches will remain possible.   
      
   Otto   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=   
   DZ3fjg!-otaUnJHL9uHMhHKbJWde9LUbFGUwUeanvAO9Vad5_uIr0z-QeNKrL-6eTtn8HcWvIKY=   
   zxOkhDsM0PZ1MCtcwAVzSW4$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...BRO...CRP...EWX...   
      
   ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...   
      
   LAT...LON   28739716 28419661 27979657 27069704 25679698=20   
               25829839 26089916 26689958 27359974 27970016=20   
               28239969 28689774=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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