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   ACUS01 KWNS 260057   
   SWODY1   
   SPC AC 260055   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0655 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025   
      
   Valid 260100Z - 261200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF   
   SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST   
   GEORGIA...AND OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Isolated strong storms remain possible from southern Alabama into   
   western Georgia and the Florida Panhandle through late evening, and   
   over Deep South Texas.   
      
   ...AL into southwest GA and the FL Panhandle...   
   A marginally unstable air mass remains ahead of a cold front this   
   evening, extending from northwest GA across central AL. Scattered   
   thunderstorms are ongoing near/ahead of the front, with minimal   
   indications of severe potential currently. However, PWAT values up   
   to 1.50" persist, with minimal convective inhibition especially over   
   southern areas. Southwest 850 mb winds near 30 kt is also supporting   
   areas of 100-150 m2/s2 effective SRH, which could aid rotation in   
   the stronger storms. As such, will maintain the Marginal Risk, with   
   a low-end risk of a brief tornado or locally damaging gusts over the   
   next several hours.   
      
   ...Deep South TX...   
   Weak easterly low-level flow persists this evening south of a   
   developing cold front, with 70s F dewpoints onshore. The 00Z CRP   
   sounding show minimal capping, though winds are weak below 700 mb.   
   Farther south, the 00Z BRO soundings still indicates substantial   
   capping. Latest radar already indicates convective showers may be   
   developing inland.   
      
   Conditionally, the environment supports hail over 1.00" diameter,   
   with MLCAPE over 1500 J/kg and deep-layer effective shear around 50   
   kt. The primary uncertainty is due to weak lift. However, the cold   
   front will eventually push south into the moist and unstable air   
   mass later tonight, and this may result in sufficient lift for a few   
   strong to perhaps severe thunderstorms with localized hail threat.   
   As such, 5% hail probabilities have been added.   
      
   ..Jewell.. 11/26/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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