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   Day 3 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0129 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025   
      
   Valid 271200Z - 281200Z   
      
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Isolated thunderstorms are possible across southeast Florida on   
   Thursday. Severe storms are not expected.   
      
   ...Synopsis...   
   An upper low over the northeastern US and southern Canada will   
   further amplify Thursday as ridging builds to the west ahead of a   
   weaker shortwave trough over the Pacific. Broad and strong cyclonic   
   flow aloft will overspread the eastern half of the US extending   
   northwestward over the northern Rockies. At the surface, a strong   
   low will occlude over eastern Canada while a cold front moves   
   offshore over the east coast. In the wake of the front, high   
   pressure will intensify as it moves southward into the central US.   
      
   With surface high pressure and offshore flow expected in the wake of   
   the departing cold front, thunderstorm potential over the US will be   
   limited to far southern FL. Here, isolated thunderstorms are   
   possible ahead of the front Thursday afternoon. However, weak lapse   
   rates and  buoyancy should limit the severe threat.   
      
   Occasional lightning is also possible over portions the eastern   
   Great Lakes owing to warm water temps and cold air advection behind   
   the upper low Thursday and Thursday evening. But, with cold   
   thermodynamic profiles only modest supportive of mixed-phase   
   precipitation, any lightning flashes should be sporadic and tied to   
   deeper and more persistent lake-effect bands.   
      
   ..Lyons.. 11/25/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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