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   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0115 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025   
      
   Valid 252000Z - 261200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE   
   EVENING FROM EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Isolated severe storms are possible from east central/southeast   
   Mississippi across central Alabama into northwest Georgia through   
   late evening.  A couple of tornadoes, isolated wind damage and   
   isolated large hail will all be possible.   
      
   ...20z Update..   
   Only minor adjustments were made to extend the Slight Risk further   
   southeast across southern Alabama with this update in alignment with   
   recent trends. Occasional rotating cells are noted on radar across   
   central/southern Alabama over the last couple of hours. Daytime   
   heating will continue across this region with occasional stronger   
   cell development expected through the afternoon. VAD profiles from   
   BMX, MXX continue to show favorable low-level curvature of   
   hodographs, indicative of SRH rich environments supporting rotating   
   cells. A couple of tornadoes, isolated wind damage, and isolated   
   large hail remain possible. See previous discussion below for more   
   information.   
      
   ..Thornton.. 11/25/2025   
      
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025/   
      
   ...MS/AL/GA through late evening...   
   A weakening midlevel trough will continue to eject   
   east-northeastward from the TN Valley to the Appalachians, in   
   advance of an amplifying trough from the northern Plains to the   
   upper MS Valley.  An associated/weak surface cold front will move   
   southeastward across LA/MS/AL, though the majority of the convective   
   threat today will be focused along a residual outflow boundary from   
   east central MS into central AL.  Low-level recovery into northeast   
   AL/northwest GA will depend on some clearing of clouds/rain, which   
   is uncertain.  Along and south of this boundary, that is being   
   loosely reinforced by ongoing convection, warming surface   
   temperatures into the 70s with mid-upper 60s dewpoints will   
   contribute to MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg.  Forcing for ascent will   
   linger into the afternoon and support additional thunderstorm   
   development, and there will be sufficient deep-layer vertical shear   
   for a couple of supercells.  Low-level shear/hodograph curvature   
   will be greatest along the residual outflow (per the BMX VWP)   
   through the afternoon, and then low-level flow will weaken by this   
   evening.  A couple of tornadoes and isolated wind damage/large hail   
   will be possible this afternoon into this evening.   
      
   $$   
      
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