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   ACUS11 KWNS 251739   
   SWOMCD   
   SPC MCD 251739=20   
   ALZ000-MSZ000-252015-   
      
   Mesoscale Discussion 2231   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1139 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025   
      
   Areas affected...Southwest into central Alabama...far southeastern   
   Mississippi   
      
   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20   
      
   Valid 251739Z - 252015Z   
      
   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent   
      
   SUMMARY...An isolated supercell or two may eventually evolve out of   
   convection along a confluence band in southern/central Alabama. A   
   tornado or two and isolated wind/hail would be possible. The need   
   for a watch is not certain, but convective trends will be monitored.   
      
   DISCUSSION...Convection has gradually been deepening along a   
   confluence zone in southwestern to central Alabama. A few of the   
   stronger updrafts have shown at least weak rotation over the past   
   hour. KBMX/KMXX VAD data show enlarged low-level hodographs near and   
   south of an effective warm front. Broad cyclonic flow across the   
   region will promote around 50 kts of effective shear in Alabama.   
   Forcing for ascent at mid-levels will remain weak, but this may also   
   allow development that occurs to remain discrete. The overall   
   expectation is for diurnal heating to slowly destabilize the   
   boundary layer this afternoon and allow for further strengthening of   
   updrafts. A couple of isolated supercells are at least possible   
   within this environment. Low-level shear will support a risk for a   
   tornado or two. Isolated wind damage and marginally severe hail   
   could also occur. Modest mid-level lapse rates and lack of better   
   forcing keep storm coverage and intensity uncertain, but a watch is   
   possible deepening on convective trends over the next couple of   
   hours.   
      
   ..Wendt/Thompson.. 11/25/2025   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=   
   g!9cng3bt_ZiR8biWlbn6PijIa8CYrgo98ddVKFzXFFPkVFKjAyh2wO6u6tY99cr_IH05fY-HYd=   
   LbznPCf1Of39XwAFao$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...   
      
   LAT...LON   31138846 31548870 31978856 32658741 32878705 32968682   
               32968634 32458610 31808657 31358719 31228766 31088803   
               31048815 31048815 31138846=20   
      
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH   
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH   
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN   
      
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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