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   Day 2 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1128 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025   
      
   Valid 261200Z - 271200Z   
      
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Severe storms are unlikely Wednesday or Wednesday night.   
      
   ...Southeast...   
   A shortwave trough over the southeastern US will move eastward   
   quickly as a second, more intense perturbation, deepens and expands   
   from the southern Great Lakes into the upper Ohio Valley. As the   
   secondary shortwave intensifies, broad and strong southwesterly flow   
   aloft will envelop much of the eastern US, as ridging builds over   
   the West. While the upper-level system matures, a surface low should   
   also deepen, moving from the western Great Lakes into southern   
   Canada by 00z Thursday. A cold front associated with the low will   
   sweep east/southeastward across the Southeast before moving offshore   
   early Thursday.   
      
   Showers and a few thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing ahead of   
   the front early Wednesday associated with the prior day's convective   
   cycle. The impact of these storms on the increasingly narrow warm   
   sector is uncertain, but may tend to limit destabilization in their   
   wake. Some heating of a remnant moist (60s F dewpoints) air mass   
   could support weak buoyancy and redevelopment of a few thunderstorms   
   in the afternoon, mostly likely from southern GA and southwestern SC   
   into northern FL. However, weak buoyancy and poor mid-level lapse   
   rates south of the primary ascent tied to the upper trough should   
   limit the severe threat. The cold front will then move offshore   
   Wednesday evening into early Thursday, ushering in cooler and drier   
   conditions.   
      
   ...Eastern Great Lakes into the Northeast/mid Atlantic Coasts...   
   Closer to the cold core of the upper trough, isolated low-topped   
   convection is possible along the cold front Wednesday afternoon.   
   However, surface moisture and resulting buoyancy will be quite   
   limited. This suggests only sporadic potential for lightning. Still,   
   strong flow aloft (1-3km AGL 40-50 kt) could support a stray   
   convectively augmented wind gust near the coast and in the lee of   
   lakes Erie/Ontario, where weak elevated buoyancy will be present.   
      
   ..Lyons.. 11/25/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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