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   AWUS01 KWNH 251510   
   FFGMPD   
   ALZ000-MSZ000-251909-   
      
   Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1250   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   1010 AM EST Tue Nov 25 2025   
      
   Areas affected...west-central into central Alabama   
      
   Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible   
      
   Valid 251509Z - 251909Z   
      
   Summary: The best chance of isolated flash flood potential exists   
   across west-central into central Alabama over the next couple   
   hours.   
      
   Discussion...A complicated surface/low-level pattern exists across   
   the discussion area currently.  A remnant outflow boundary from   
   earlier convection now over Georgia resides along an axis from   
   just south of Tuscaloosa eastward to the AL/GA border just north   
   of Auburn.  This boundary was oriented perpendicular to strong   
   southerly 850mb flow (around 40-45 knots), providing ascent for   
   sustained, deep convective updrafts.  Subtle mid-level waves   
   across Louisiana/Mississippi were also providing ascent for   
   updrafts.  Convection has tended to focus along and just north of   
   the aforementioned outflow, and with 1.4 inch PW values, moderate   
   surface-based buoyancy south of the outflow, and deep layer flow   
   generally parallel to the initiating outflow boundary, some   
   opportunity exists for training of cells this morning from near   
   Tuscaloosa into the southern sections of Birmingham Metro this   
   morning.  Some of this rainfall was occurring in areas that have   
   already experienced 2-3 inches of rainfall over the past 6 hours,   
   and with wet ground conditions and urban interfaces across the   
   discussion area, potential exists for excessive runoff issues in   
   the short term.   
      
   Fast southerly low-level flow should allow for at least modest   
   northward retreat of the outflow boundary along with a northward   
   shift in the primary axis of training convection, though the   
   northward retreat may not be as rapid as recent mesoanalyses   
   indicate.  Meanwhile, additional upstream convection over central   
   Mississippi should gradually mature while moving toward the   
   Tuscaloosa-to-Birmingham corridor this morning.  This corridor   
   could see a locally enhanced threat of isolated flash flooding   
   over the next 2-4 hours or so (through 19Z/1p central).   
      
   Cook   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=   
   DZ3fjg!6oo1BSolf7M2qBcRNsBLpY_s_IwsR3N0WjlYfTIZJDSjo1V43q768zdRjEmPkHSL37-S=   
   nj5LWzZgDLCEWCWE-B8J0X0$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...JAN...MEG...   
      
   ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...   
      
   LAT...LON   34228682 33838585 33108582 32558693 32388875=20   
               32808939 33598868 33928817=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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