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   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0621 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025   
      
   Valid 251300Z - 261200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND   
   EVENING FROM EAST-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA....   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the   
   Southeast/Deep South this morning into the early evening hours. A   
   couple tornadoes are possible in parts of eastern Mississippi and   
   central Alabama.   
      
   ...MS/AL/GA...   
   A progressive mid-level shortwave trough is moving across west   
   TN/northern MS.  Strong forcing for ascent ahead of this trough has   
   resulted in a fast-moving line of showers and isolated thunderstorms   
   across northern AL this morning - now moving into northwest GA.   
   These storms are tracking into a progressively less unstable air   
   mass, with surface dewpoints only in the mid 50s.  This should limit   
   downdraft penetration to the surface and diminish the risk of   
   gusty/damaging winds in the next couple of hours.   
      
   In the wake of this activity, southerly low-level winds will allow   
   gradual return of the moist and moderately unstable air mass into   
   east-central MS and central/northern AL.  Large-scale forcing will   
   be weak the rest of the day, but pockets of daytime heating may be   
   sufficient for the re-development of scattered thunderstorms by   
   early afternoon.  Those storms that form will be in an environment   
   of 20-30 knots of southerly low-level winds and sufficient   
   deep-layer shear to promote transient supercell structures.   
   Therefore have maintained the ongoing SLGT risk, despite weak   
   forcing mechanisms.  Gusty winds and a risk of a few tornadoes are   
   the main concern.   
      
   ..Hart/Dean.. 11/25/2025   
      
   $$   
      
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